From Iraq to Africa: How the Gaza War Expanded the Houthis' Ambitions
by Igor Subbotin, Nezavisimaya Gazeta
한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском A year into the Gaza conflict, the Houthi movement calls itself «Ansar Allah», once focused on defending Yemen’s sovereignty, has emerged as one of the most active members of the «Axis of Resistance» — a club of state and non-state actors loyal to Iran. The military-political platform has not only expanded the geography of its attacks to relatively remote arenas, but has also stepped up its global outreach, reaching out to audiences in South Asia, Europe, and the United States. The most significant development has been the Houthis' ability to enhance their diplomatic activity beyond their traditional sphere of interest. «Ansar Allah» increased coordination with members of the «Axis of Resistance» in Iraq to carry out strikes against Israel. Another notable direction was Africa, where, according to U.S. reports, Yemeni rebels initiated negotiations with the Somali group «Al-Shabaab» (recognized as a terrorist organization, banned in Russia) about the transfer of arms. A major diplomatic loss for the Yemeni movement was the weakening of trust with Syria. Thus, in the fall of 2023, the government of President Bashar al-Assad revoked the Houthis’ rights to diplomatic representation in Damascus and promised to hand it over to a rival faction, the central government of Yemen. However, from October 2023, the «Ansar Allah» movement, which actively demonstrated solidarity with Hamas, began to steadily evolve into a fully-fledged transnational entity capable of influencing security dynamics far beyond the Arabian Peninsula. A Breach in the «Axis of Resistance» In October 2023, just days after Hamas’s armed wing launched an attack on southern Israel, the Syrian government ordered the Houthis to be stripped of their diplomatic representation in Damascus. The Yemeni movement, which is informally affiliated with the Syrian government through its «Axis of Resistance» had its own embassy in the capital since 2015, when the Saudi-led Arab states began their official intervention in Yemen. It appears that this move was influenced by the Gulf countries, which are eager to reintegrate Syria into the Arab fold at any cost. Just three days before the expulsion of the «Ansar Allah» diplomats, the leaders of Syria and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had a phone conversation, with the situation in Gaza being the primary focus. According to some reports, Abu Dhabi sent a cautious warning to Damascus, advising it to refrain from direct involvement in the conflict between Israel and Hamas and to prevent loosely controlled paramilitary groups from turning its jurisdiction into a launching pad for attacks on Israel. An indirect indication that the changes surrounding the embassy occurred under the influence of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is that the building, which had been taken away, was promised to representatives of the internationally recognized government of Yemen, which traditionally relies on the support of Saudi Arabia. However, some Arab experts have expressed doubt that the transfer of the diplomatic mission to another Yemeni faction necessarily carries a clearly articulated political message. According to Israeli think tanks, the Houthis still maintain a military presence in Syria, led by their military attaché, Sharaf al-Mawri. Reports indicate that the Syrian authorities continue to invite the military attaché to official events and allow him freedom of communication with local security apparatuses. Furthermore, Israeli analysts suggest that the «Ansar Allah» movement has a group of operatives in Syria, potentially numbering in the hundreds. Some of these fighters are believed to have expertise in operating combat drones and launching ballistic missiles. So the situation around the Damascus embassy did not lead to a complete collapse of ties between Syria and «Ansar Allah» although it was perceived by the Yemeni movement’s functionaries as an absolute tragedy. Iraqi Office In June 2024, the leadership of «Ansar Allah» announced plans to coordinate its attacks on Israel with the «Islamic Resistance in Iraq» — a coalition of several Shiite groups. The collaboration between these two forces was highlighted by coordinated attacks on critical infrastructure in Israeli port cities. Following the decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to target Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, the Houthis and the «Islamic Resistance in Iraq» escalated military pressure on Israel. Amid the escalation around Lebanon in the summer of 2024, the Houthis opened their own office in Baghdad, following the example of the Hamas group. The leadership of «Ansar Allah» has been trying to strengthen ties with Iraq for the past decade. In 2015 the Yemeni movement sent a representative to Baghdad to expand bilateral political and defense relations. Moreover, there is a point of view that the «Ansar Allah» movement actively collaborated with the Shiite factions of Iraq when it launched a powerful combined attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry facilities in 2019: the launch of combat drones could have been carried out from the territory of the Republic. Experts believe that now the nature of these contacts has changed qualitatively. According to their estimates, one of the key tasks of the Houthi representative office opened in Baghdad in the summer should be to obtain financial support from loyal circles in Iraq. Moreover, inside Yemen, Ansar Allah has been facing difficulties in managing financial flows since the beginning of this year. At the same time, Iraq appears to be a relatively comfortable place from the point of view of coordinating actions along the «Axis of Resistance»: representatives of the Iranian military and political leadership often visit the Republic. Cooperation between the Houthis and Iraqi groups has every chance of developing, especially against the backdrop of the irreconcilable desire of the Netanyahu government to suppress the military and command potential of its opponents «on seven fronts» at any cost. Apparently, the new Baghdad office of «Ansar Allah» plays the role of not only a financial center, but also a joint operations room for organizing strikes on Israel. A Window into Africa Western countries are increasingly concerned about «Ansar Allah’s» willingness to expand its influence into Africa. The U.S. intelligence community reports that the Yemeni movement is determined to establish effective ties with «Al-Shabaab» a militant group operating in the Horn of Africa, potentially to create a strategic threat to Western interests on the continent. Intelligence agencies suspect that, for now, the two groups are focusing primarily on arms deals. U.S. think tanks have noted that «Ansar Allah» (the Houthis) and «Al-Shabaab» already had indirect connections through local arms trading networks. However, Washington now believes that these two groups, despite being ideological antagonists, are currently engaged in direct dialogue. This dialogue is reportedly focused on the transfer of advanced warfare technologies to the Somali jihadists, including anti-aircraft missile systems and combat drones. US Africa Command has no doubt that «Al-Shabaab» will likely use Houthi-provided equipment to target US facilities and regular personnel. Washington has a direct hand in the Horn of Africa: US drones are constantly hunting for senior «Al-Shabaab» commanders and collecting intelligence in Somalia. But the situation may not be limited to Somalia. The Israeli intelligence community claims that the Houthis are planning to expand their presence in other parts of Africa, in order to project military power unhindered in the Eastern Mediterranean. For example, according to these reports, the Yemeni movement is looking for a tangible foothold in Sudan, Egypt and Morocco, allegedly hoping to transfer groups of its operatives there. This year, the Houthis have promised to harm Israeli interests in the Mediterranean, and the Jewish state believes that this threat is not illusory. Farewell to the «Proxy» Image During the 12 months of destructive military actions in the Gaza Strip, the «Ansar Allah» movement has established itself as one of the strongest links in the «Axis of Resistance». This has given it the opportunity to become an attractive partner for players who build their policies in the Middle East on the antithesis of the influence of the United States and its allies. It is quite clear that the Houthis' foreign policy capital has only grown in the wake of the U.S.-British operation launched against them on the night of January 12, 2024: the massive strikes from the sea not only failed to weaken the military potential of the Yemeni organization, but within the first few months also demonstrated the international community’s inability to provide military protection for critical maritime routes. If the reports about Ansar Allah deploying its fighters to Syria and North African Arab countries are close to the truth, this currently seems more like a political move than a tactical one, given how sensitive Israel is to the activities of Iran-aligned forces around its sphere of interests. Another question is that the transfer of even a symbolic number of fighters could give the government of Benjamin Netanyahu a formal pretext to resort to escalation scenarios. However, the Yemeni movement’s contacts with Somali jihadists have all the characteristics of a major strategic shift. If the practical level of their cooperation grants them the ability to exert pressure on the Gulf of Aden from different directions, this could strike a blow to the interests of global actors and exacerbate the negative impact of events surrounding Yemen on the global economy. The Houthis' attempt to transform into a transnational movement, which emerged as a response to Israel's military campaign in the Gaza Strip, has led to the expansion of their operational capabilities. On the one hand, this allows the Iranian-led «Axis of Resistance» to maintain the appearance of unity against the backdrop of the apathy of its Syrian partners and the paralysis that has gripped Hezbollah. But on the other hand, by diversifying their ties, the Houthis are neutralizing the image of a military-political entity that is totally dependent on Iran, a label they have been given since the intensification of hostilities in Yemen.