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Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended following the leaking of a recording of a conversation she had with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. The conversation was seen as a serious breach of ethics, even an act of treason, against a backdrop of tensions with Phnom Penh. The affair rekindled border tensions and exacerbated clan rivalries within the Thai government.

On 2 June 2025, Thailand's Constitutional Court voted unanimously (9-0) to examine a petition filed by thirty-six senators calling for the impeachment of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. On 1 July, the court ordered her immediate suspension by seven votes to two, pending a final verdict. The leader now has 15 days to prepare her defence. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is now acting Prime Minister, while Paetongtarn herself has been given the portfolio of Culture, following an express reshuffle of the government. Paradoxically, this reshuffle, approved by the King, leaves the country without a Defence Minister, in the midst of a diplomatic crisis with Cambodia.

The official reason for Paetongtarn's suspension? A ‘serious breach of ethics,’ following the leak of an audio recording of a private conversation between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, Cambodia's former strongman. This diplomatic scandal is exacerbating Thailand's political crisis. It reveals the underlying tensions of a fragile system, marked by dynastic alliances, the judicialization of politics, military rivalries, and a polarized society.

A leaked audio recording at the heart of the scandal

Since May 2025, tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have been rising steadily, fueled by ancient border disputes inherited from the French colonial period.

On 18 June, a 17-minute audio recording was made public; its broadcast appears to have been orchestrated from Phnom Penh, although it is not clear by whom. It shows the Prime Minister talking to Hun Sen, President of the Cambodian Senate and father of the current Prime Minister Hun Manet. The subject of the discussion is the sovereignty of three temples on the Thai-Cambodian border, which has been a theatre of tension for decades. Paetongtarn adopts an informal and conciliatory tone. At one point she says: ‘Uncle, please be lenient with your niece’. A little later, she adds: ‘Your Excellency Hun Sen, whatever you want, I will take care of it.’

In the call, she also criticizes the commander of Thailand's second military region, Lieutenant-General Boonsin Padklang, who is in charge of the border sector, describing him as a member of the ‘opposing camp.’ This is a worrying sign of institutional cohesion, in the context of historic mistrust between the Shinawatra clan and the military establishment.

Since the recording was leaked, Paetongtarn has apologized to General Boonsin and publicly expressed her regrets to the Thai people - not for her remarks to Hun Sen, but for the leak itself, which she describes as regrettable. She justified the tone of the conversation by referring to a negotiating technique on her part.

Hun Sen claims that he only shared the recording with around eighty colleagues to ‘inform’ them, without being able to identify the person who orchestrated the leak. Not a very convincing line of defence, especially as he then threatened to divulge further compromising information about Paetongtarn and his father Thaksin (former prime minister of Thailand from 2001 to 2006).

The effect was immediate: a national outcry, accusations of treason and a government in crisis. The People's Party, the main opposition party and offshoot of the Move Forward Party, which was dissolved in 2024, demanded the dissolution of parliament and an early general election. The Bhumjaithai, a conservative party with its base in the Buriram region (Isan), and the second largest force in the government coalition behind the Prime Minister's Pheu Thai, announced its withdrawal from the government on 19 June - officially, in the name of national sovereignty in the face of a head of government judged incapable of responding to threats from Cambodia; unofficially, it is seeking to dissociate itself from a weakened government, in a context of rivalry over control of the strategic Ministry of the Interior.

It was against this backdrop that a group of senators close to the Bhumjaithai party - nicknamed the ‘dark blues’ (the color of the Bhumjaithai party) because of their partisan allegiance - appealed to the Constitutional Court, accusing Paetongtarn of a ‘serious breach of ethics.’ In their petition, they formally called for her dismissal, arguing that her behaviour had breached the standards of probity expected of a head of government.

A risky response and a threatened majority

In this climate of hostility, Paetongtarn has a way out: to resign before the Constitutional Court's decision, as many politicians and analysts have urged her to do. This strategy would enable her to preserve her political future and stand for re-election at a later date.

This choice is not without precedent in the Shinawatra dynasty. In 2006, her father Thaksin dissolved parliament in an attempt to defuse a political crisis but was overthrown shortly afterwards in a military coup. In 2014, her aunt Yingluck, prime minister from 2011 to 2014, adopted the same strategy: she dissolved the National Assembly before being impeached by the Constitutional Court, then overthrown in her turn by the army.

These precedents partly explain why Paetongtarn seems to have ruled out this option: in the Thai political system, dissolving Parliament offers no guarantee of survival. She therefore prefers to face the verdict of a Constitutional Court perceived to be close to the royalist and military establishment, which has historically been hostile to the Shinawatras, despite the risk of political banishment.

Politically, her position has become untenable. The Pheu Thai party, which she leads, has just 141 seats out of 495. Her new majority is based on a fragile coalition of around 260 seats, threatened at any time by internal divisions and power struggles. Around twenty MPs originally elected in opposition - nicknamed the ‘Cobra MPs’ for having switched sides in return for financial compensation - could provide occasional support to the government, but without guaranteeing its stability. In this context, the cabinet reshuffle is a tactical maneuver: it aims not only to reassure public opinion, but also to broaden the parliamentary base by integrating or rewarding small parties likely to join or support the coalition.

And yet, neither the dissolution of the Assembly nor the holding of early elections are on the agenda. Pheu Thai hopes to have its budget adopted before October, and to avoid an electoral confrontation with the opposition represented by the People's Party, credited with 46% of voting intentions according to a NIDA poll on 29 June, compared with just 11.5% for Pheu Thai.

In addition, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is investigating several cases involving Paetongtarn: her alleged illegal ownership of shares in a luxury resort; a 2016 family transaction in which she allegedly used undated promissory notes to ‘pay’ 4.4 billion baht (around $135 million) in shares, thereby avoiding nearly 218 million baht in taxes; and her controversial handling of the 28 May border crisis, which resulted in the death of a Cambodian soldier.

Added to this are the court cases against his father, which could weaken the whole family, at a time when the compromises made between Pheu Thai and its former conservative adversaries seem increasingly fragile. Thaksin is on trial for the crime of lèse-majesté, following an interview he gave to a South Korean media outlet nine years ago. He is also on trial for his controversial return to Thailand in 2023: although officially sentenced to one year in prison after a royal pardon, he did not spend a single day behind bars, having been transferred to the police hospital on the first night for health reasons. This prolonged stay in a VIP room provoked considerable controversy, which was rekindled in June 2025 when a judicial enquiry was opened and several doctors were suspended by the Medical Council, against a backdrop of political pressure.

History repeats itself: a court at the heart of power games

Paetongtarn's suspension is one in a long series of politically biased judicial decisions. In 2024, his predecessor Srettha Thavisin, a member of Pheu Thai, was dismissed for ethical breaches after appointing a minister who had served time in prison. At the same time, as we mentioned earlier, the Move Forward Party was dissolved and its leaders banned political life for campaigning in favor of reforming the lèse-majesté law.

In 2022, the Court suspended Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha for exceeding his legal term of office, before concluding in a controversial decision that his term of office had only really begun with the adoption of the new Constitution in 2017, even though he had already been leading the military government since 2014.

This trend is not neutral. Judicial institutions, in particular the Constitutional Court, are regularly mobilized to neutralize figures perceived as hostile to the established order (monarchy, army, high bureaucracy). Once again, the procedure follows a well-worn pattern: acceptance of the complaint, investigation against the accused, then removal from office.

It should be noted that the Bhumjaithai party was also the subject of a complaint for its alleged involvement in fraud during the 2024 senatorial elections. It was accused of having illegally financed certain candidates. The Constitutional Court unanimously rejected the application, ruling that there were no grounds for prosecution. This decision contrasts with the acceptance of the complaint against Paetongtarn, and fuels suspicions of differential treatment. Bhumjaithai is increasingly establishing itself as the new political pillar of the conservative forces.

Regional maneuvers, national protests

The current crisis goes well beyond the parliamentary framework. On 28 June, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Bangkok under the banner of the ‘United Front for the Defence of Thai Sovereignty’. They were led by Sondhi Limthongkul, a central figure in the Yellow Shirts movement, a royalist and ultranationalist group opposed to Shinawatra governments and one of the architects of Thaksin's overthrow in 2006.

Alongside the traditional figures of the conservative right wing, there were also former allies of Thaksin who have now broken away, including Jatuporn Prompan, one of the leaders of the Red Shirts, a popular movement born in reaction to the 2006 coup. Another demonstration is scheduled for mid-August when the Constitutional Court is due to deliver its verdict.

The speeches vary, but all converge on a moral formal accusation: the Prime Minister is said to have traded national interests for family benefits. While the majority are calling for change through parliamentary channels, some zealous conservatives are raising the spectre of a coup d'état. The patriotic music, the protest scarves, the whistles: everything was reminiscent of the mobilizations that preceded the most recent coup, in 2014.

In the background, relations between Thailand and Cambodia are worsening, against a backdrop of territorial rivalries and political reshuffling. Officially, Phnom Penh is considering taking a border dispute over Kood Island, potentially rich in oil and gas resources, to the International Court of Justice. But many analysts see this move as part of a wider strategy to weaken the Thai government by fueling controversy over the parallel diplomacy between Thaksin Shinawatra and Hun Sen.

The joint development project in this area, long discussed between the two men, now symbolizes an informal alignment that is disturbing Bangkok. It is in this context that the audio leak is a deliberate maneuver: Hun Sen is seeking to expose these links publicly, to divert attention from the internal tensions in Cambodia, and to influence the Thai political balance. This offensive can also be explained by more immediate economic interests: the legalization of casinos, promoted by Paetongtarn, and her policy of fighting cross-border criminal networks, directly threaten the Cambodian casino industry and the income of Cambodian elites based along the border.

These attacks are reigniting old suspicions about the links between the Shinawatra family and Cambodia. Thaksin and Hun Sen have enjoyed a close relationship for decades, based on shared economic interests and a form of political pragmatism. When Thaksin and former prime minister Yingluck fled Thailand after the coups of 2006 and 2014, it was Hun Sen who offered them asylum.

In 2008 and 2011, border tensions - particularly around the Preah Vihear temple - had already been used to portray the Shinawatras as traitors to the nation. Now, with Paetongtarn in power and Thaksin back in the fold, these accusations are resurfacing.

Chronic instability and a locked political scene

Paetongtarn's removal from office seems increasing but the succession options remain unclear.

Her designated replacement within Pheu Thai, Chaikasem Nitisiri, is attracting reservations due to his state of health and his past stance in favor of reforming the crime of lèse-majesté. Within the coalition, other leading figures such as Pirapan and Jurin lack political clout or have been weakened by the controversy. At present, the only candidate with sufficient parliamentary clout and a degree of legitimacy seems to be Anutin Charnvirakul. But in the event of a parliamentary deadlock, former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha could emerge as a ‘wild card’ candidate, although he would only be able to hold the post for two more years before reaching the maximum number of years allowed by the Constitution.

Paetongtarn's downfall, if confirmed, will be part of a familiar cycle: leaders emerging from the ballot box are discredited by institutional mechanisms, conservative elites reorganize, the streets fill up, and the army prepares in the background.

Behind the image of a generational or female revival, Paetongtarn's power rested on an architecture inherited from her father that she neither reformed nor challenged. But by seeking to navigate this system while re-imposing the influence of her family, she has rekindled tensions with the conservative elites who had done everything to exclude the Shinawatras. The challenge is less institutional than political, but she may have underestimated the resilience of the existing system.

In the short term, everything depends on the decision of the Constitutional Court, expected in one- or two-months’ time. But as always in Thailand, the real negotiations do not take place in Parliament or in the public square; they take place behind the scenes, between families, factions, and interlocking interests, with the King at the head of state.