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Energy & Economics
african map with flags on chinese yuan bills, belt and road investment concept

International Cooperation Between China and Africa: The New Silk Road.

by Danna Fernanda Mena Navarro

1. Introduction The relationship between China and Africa has become one of the most influential geopolitical dynamics of the 21st century. For China, Africa represents a strategic source of raw materials, an emerging market of 1.4 billion people, and a key partner for strengthening its political influence within international organizations. For Africa, China has represented an alternative to traditional Western financing, capable of offering infrastructure, investment, and trade openness without explicit political conditions. However, this relationship has also generated debates regarding economic dependency, debt risks, and the real balance between mutual benefit and power. 2. Theoretical Framework: Realism, Core–Periphery, and Interdependence 2.1 Realism From a realist perspective, China’s engagement can be interpreted as a strategy to strengthen state power, secure energy resources, increase its influence vis-à-vis the United States, and promote international recognition of the People’s Republic of China over Taiwan. 2.2 Core–Periphery Theory Following Wallerstein, the China–Africa relationship reflects a core–periphery dynamic: China, as an industrialized country with high technological capacity, occupies the core, while African states, as exporters of raw materials, occupy the periphery. However, China seeks to project a narrative of mutual benefit in order to differentiate itself from former European colonial powers. 2.3 Power Transition Theory China’s rise demonstrates how an emerging power can alter the international system. Examples include Deng Xiaoping’s economic opening (1978), accelerated industrialization, and strategic global integration through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 3. Historical Evolution of the China–Africa Relationship The formal relationship was consolidated in the 1960s, but it was significantly strengthened in the 21st century through mechanisms such as the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), established in 2000. This period has been characterized by billions of dollars in foreign direct investment and the integration of African ports into the New Silk Road. Africa came to view China as a non-colonial partner, while China found diplomatic support that enabled it to occupy China’s seat at the United Nations in 1971 as the “legitimate China.” 4. Key Data and Statistics of the China–Africa Economic Relationship From a realist perspective, the volume of China’s trade and investment in Africa does not respond solely to economic dynamics, but rather to a deliberate strategy of accumulating structural power. Secured access to oil, critical minerals, and strategic metals is essential for sustaining China’s industrial growth and reducing its vulnerability to external disruptions, particularly in a context of systemic competition with the United States. Likewise, from a core–periphery perspective, the composition of bilateral trade reproduces classic patterns of unequal exchange, in which Africa continues to export primary goods with low value added while importing manufactured goods and technology. Although China discursively distances itself from European colonialism, the data suggest that the structure of exchange maintains asymmetries that may limit the autonomous industrial development of the African continent. 4.1 Bilateral Trade Trade between China and Africa reached USD 282 billion in 2023, making China the continent’s largest trading partner. African exports to China consist of approximately 70% oil, minerals, and metals. China primarily exports machinery, textiles, electronics, and vehicles. 4.2 Investment and Infrastructure Projects Between 2013 and 2023, China financed more than 10,000 km of railways, 100,000 km of roads, and over 100 ports in Africa. China is responsible for approximately 31% of total infrastructure investment on the continent. 4.3 Debt Africa’s debt to China amounts to approximately USD 73 billion. In countries such as Angola and Kenya, Chinese debt accounts for more than 20% of their total external debt. 5. Country-Specific Examples The cases of Ethiopia, Kenya, Angola, and Zambia demonstrate that China’s cooperation is not homogeneous, but rather strategically differentiated according to each country’s geopolitical and economic importance. Ethiopia, as Africa’s diplomatic hub and host of the African Union, is key to China’s political projection on the continent. Kenya and Angola stand out for their logistical and energy value, respectively, while Zambia illustrates the financial limits of this model of cooperation. From the perspective of interdependence theory, these relationships generate mutual benefits, but in an asymmetric manner: China diversifies trade routes, secures resources, and expands its influence, while African countries obtain infrastructure, often at the cost of increased financial vulnerability. In this sense, Africa is not merely a passive recipient, but a central space in the architecture of China’s global rise. 5.1 Ethiopia: A Symbol of Cooperation Ethiopia is one of China’s main allies in Africa. The Addis Ababa–Djibouti railway represents an investment of approximately USD 4 billion, almost entirely financed by China. In 2022, Ethiopia exported more than USD 200 million in agricultural and mineral products to China. 5.2 Kenya: Infrastructure and Debt The Mombasa–Nairobi railway, valued at approximately USD 3.6 billion, is the most expensive infrastructure project in Kenya’s history. Kenya owes China around USD 6.3 billion, equivalent to nearly 20% of its external debt. 5.3 Angola: Oil as Collateral Angola is one of China’s main oil suppliers. A significant portion of Angola’s debt to China is repaid through oil shipments, creating a form of structural dependency. 5.4 Zambia: Risk of Over-Indebtedness Zambia was the first African country to fall into default in the post-pandemic period. China is its principal bilateral creditor, with more than USD 6 billion in outstanding loans. 6. The New Silk Road in Africa Africa’s incorporation into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) should be understood as an extension of China’s broader project to reconfigure the international system. Maritime and port corridors in East Africa not only facilitate trade, but also reduce China’s dependence on routes controlled by Western powers, thereby strengthening its strategic autonomy. East Africa is central to the maritime expansion of the BRI. It offers strategic ports in Djibouti, Kenya, Tanzania, and South Africa, as well as new maritime corridors that allow China to connect Asia with the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. For African countries, this integration represents greater commercial connectivity, access to modern infrastructure, and regional logistical opportunities. From the perspective of power transition theory, the BRI in Africa constitutes a key instrument through which China consolidates its position as an emerging global power, gradually displacing the traditional influence of Europe and the United States on the continent. For Africa, this integration offers opportunities for connectivity and development, while simultaneously reinforcing its centrality as a space of global geopolitical competition. 7. Criticisms of China’s Role in African Debt 7.1 Accusations of “Debt-Trap Diplomacy” China is accused of using large-scale loans to obtain strategic influence, as illustrated by the case of the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, although it lies outside the African continent. Similar concerns exist in Kenya regarding the port of Mombasa. Accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy” must be analyzed beyond normative discourse. While not all cases confirm a deliberate strategy of financial domination, the concentration of debt in a single creditor limits the room for maneuver of African states, especially in times of crisis. From a structural perspective, debt becomes a mechanism of indirect influence that can translate into political concessions, preferential access to resources, or diplomatic alignments favorable to China in international forums. Nevertheless, it is also true that responsibility lies partly with African governments, whose negotiation capacity and strategic planning are decisive in avoiding scenarios of prolonged dependency. 7.2 Lack of Transparency Loan contracts may include confidentiality clauses, resource-backed guarantees, and high penalties for renegotiation. 7.3 Long-Term Dependency For fragile states, the concentration of debt in a single creditor limits political and economic autonomy over the long term. 7.4 China’s Position China rejects these accusations and maintains that it has renegotiated and forgiven billions of dollars in debt. It argues that its loans are long-term, carry moderate interest rates, and that its cooperation is based on “mutual benefit” rather than imposition. 8. Conclusion The China–Africa relationship is complex, strategic, and multidimensional. It presents significant opportunities for African development, but also poses risks related to debt, economic dependency, and political influence. The challenge for Africa is to negotiate from a stronger position, diversify its partners, and ensure that agreements with China translate into sustainable long-term development. The core–periphery relationship between China and Africa constitutes one of the most relevant axes of the contemporary international system. Through trade, investment, infrastructure, and financing, China has consolidated itself as a central actor in African development while simultaneously strengthening its global projection as an emerging power. For African countries, this relationship offers real opportunities for growth, modernization, and integration into the global economy. However, these benefits will only be sustainable if accompanied by national strategies aimed at productive diversification, financial transparency, and collective negotiation vis-à-vis external actors. Looking toward the future of the international system, China–Africa cooperation reflects a transition toward a more multipolar order, in which emerging powers challenge traditional structures of power. Africa, far from being a peripheral actor, is emerging as a decisive space in the redefinition of global balances. The central challenge will be to transform this centrality into autonomy and sustainable development, avoiding the reproduction of old dependencies under renewed narratives. References - Castro, G. (2022). EL ASCENSO DE CHINA Y LAS TEORÍAS VERTICALES DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES: CONTRASTANDO LAS LECCIONES DE LAS TEORÍAS DE LA TRANSICIÓN DE PODER Y DEL CICLO DE PODER. Revista Uruguaya de Ciencia Política, 19(1), 185–206. http://www.scielo.edu.uy/scielo.php?pid=S1688-499X2010000100008&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en - Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com). (s. f.). China se apodera de Europa, Parte 1. DW.COM. Recuperado 2 de marzo de 2022, de https://www.dw.com/es/china-se-apodera-de-europa-la-nueva-ruta-de-la-seda-parte-1/a-56125389#:%7E:text=La%20Nueva%20Ruta%20de%20la%20Seda%20es%20el,de%20ferrocarril%20y%20carreteras%20en%20todo%20el%20mundo. - Gil, A. (2020, 15 abril). La teoría del Centro Periferia - Mapas de. El Orden Mundial - EOM. Recuperado 6 de abril de 2022, de https://elordenmundial.com/mapas-y-graficos/la-teoria-del-centro-periferia/#:%7E:text=Esta%20teor%C3%ADa%20viene%20a%20decir,que%20podemos%20ver%20hoy%20d%C3%ADa - Gonzalez Aspiazu, I. (2016, septiembre). La ayuda para el desarrollo de China en África. ¿Una alternativa a las relaciones de cooperación tradicionales? Universidad Complutense de Madrid Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología. Recuperado 2 de marzo de 2022, de https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/48098/1/21-2017-12-21-CT09_Iratxe%20Gonazalez.pdf - Iraxte González Aspiazu (2016). La ayuda para el desarrollo de China en África. ¿Una alternativa a las relaciones de cooperación tradicionales?. Cuadernos de Trabajo. Universidad Complutense de Madrid. https://eprints.ucm.es/id/eprint/48098/1/21-2017-12-21-CT09_Iratxe%20Gonazalez.pdf - Lechini, G. T. (2013). China en África: discurso seductor, intenciones dudosas. Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de la República Popular China. (2021, 1 diciembre). La VIII Conferencia Ministerial del FOCAC ha sido un éxito rotundo. Recuperado 2 de marzo de 2022, de https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/esp/zxxx/202112/t20211202_10461234.html - Moral, P. (2019, 31 agosto). China en África: del beneficio mutuo a la hegemonía de Pekín. El Orden Mundial - EOM. Recuperado 6 de abril de 2022, de https://elordenmundial.com/china-en-africa/

Energy & Economics
A Belt And Road Initiative concept with letter tiles and Chinese Yuan bank notes on a map of China.

The Belt and Road boomed in 2025

by Tom Baxter

China's engagement in overseas renewables grew once again, though not as much as in oil and gas Last year, Chinese companies’ “engagement” in 150 countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) reached its highest level since the BRI was launched 12 years ago. The value of construction deals involving Chinese companies reached USD 128 billion, up 81% on 2024. While investments totalled USD 85 billion, up 62%. The unprecedented boom has been revealed by annual data from the Griffith Asia Institute, an Australian think-tank, and the Green Finance and Development Center, a think-tank hosted in Fudan University, Shanghai. “I did not foresee last year that 2025 would be such a strong year [for BRI engagement],” said report author Christoph Nedopil Wang during an online launch. “Engagement” refers to both investments by Chinese companies, implying an ownership stake in a project, and the value of construction contracts awarded to them for engineering services. The striking upsurge comes after years of government-directed messaging, and analyst predictions, that the initiative would focus more on “small and beautiful” projects, rather than the mega projects pursued in its early years. “Small yet beautiful should be seen as a bygone,” Nedopil Wang said, noting both the total value of construction and investment deals, and the growth in average project value. Last year also saw notable shifts in the targets for Chinese companies’ activities around the world. Their engagement in renewable-energy projects grew in 2025 but not as rapidly as in oil and gas projects, which will concern many. Rapid growth in engagement in mining, and in the technology and manufacturing sector, demonstrates the evolution of the BRI since it began in 2013. Finally, Africa became the top destination for Chinese companies’ overseas engagement. The end of ‘small and beautiful’? Last year saw a marked rebound in the size of projects. The average value of investments reached USD 939 million, up from USD 672 million in 2024 and three times higher than deal sizes five years ago, during the BRI’s Covid contraction. The average value of construction deals reached USD 964 million, up from USD 496 million the previous year. Nedopil Wang says this indicates the end of “small and beautiful” BRI projects, a term promoted by the Chinese government in response to financial headwinds and the environmental and social problems which arose in the first five years of the initiative. Chinese government discourse has certainly not dropped the emphasis, however. On 27 January, People’s Daily, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China, stated that “more than 700 aid projects, including … small and beautiful livelihood projects” were delivered overseas in 2025. Booming renewables – and fossil fuels Energy was once again the top sector for engagement in Belt and Road countries, accounting for about 43% of the total. Total engagement in energy sectors reached USD 93.9 billion, the highest ever recorded. However, while just a few years ago renewable-energy projects accounted for nearly half of total energy projects overseas, in 2025 renewables made up just 21%, while fossil fuels accounted for over 75%. Nedopil Wang sees risks in the boom in oil and gas engagement. “I see a rapid rise of oil and gas engagement as an environmental risk due to the associated climate emissions. They also become an economic risk under declining fossil-fuel-demand scenarios driven by electrification of mobility and scaling of green electricity,” which would lead to lower oil and gas demand, respectively, he said. The dominance of oil and gas projects also implies an emphasis on energy extraction, rather than generation. According to the report’s breakdown, the value of investments and contracts in extractive projects amounted to USD 51.4 billion, while generation accounted for USD 25.8 billion. That said, Chinese companies’ engagement in oil and gas projects is primarily via construction contracts rather than equity ownership. This may minimise some of the economic risks Nedopil Wang identifies. When it comes to renewable projects, while these make up a smaller proportion of total energy engagement in 2025, they have seen a marked increase in real terms. Last year saw engagement worth USD 21.4 billion, up from USD 12.3 billion in 2024. “2025 was both the greenest and the brownest year” for the BRI, Nedopil Wang said during the report launch. Renewables, by their nature, also contribute to generation rather than extraction. Last year saw projects worth 23.8 GW of solar, wind and hydro generation capacity, compared to around 15 GW in 2024. “I do not immediately read the surge as a return to fossil-fuel expansion,” notes Fikayo Akeredolu, senior research associate in climate policy and justice at the University of Bristol. She points out that while oil and gas projects accounted for a large proportion of the value of construction contracts in 2025, foreign direct investment from China is supporting renewables. Meanwhile, at least in Africa, lending from China’s government-backed policy banks is backing power-transmission projects. The lending data comes from the recently updated Chinese Loans to Africa database, published by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. “[We see] a segmentation of instruments, rather than a reversal of China’s energy-transition stance,” Akeredolu says. Moving up value chains Another key sector of growth in 2025 was technology and manufacturing, referring to both traditional manufacturing activities and high-tech areas such as solar PV and batteries. Its growth demonstrates the evolution of the BRI over the last 12 years, from a focus on infrastructure to an increasing interest in developing manufacturing bases overseas. The sector saw 27% year-on-year growth in engagement and has been growing steadily since 2023. Engagement in green tech like solar PV and batteries dropped slightly compared to 2024, however. “The growing role of tech and manufacturing highlights China’s growing ability to build and manage factories (and in particular high-tech-related factories) across the world,” Nedopil Wang said. “While the original BRI engagement was concentrated in infrastructure, the new BRI is seeing the expansion of China’s manufacturing base to overseas markets.” Metals and mining also saw strong engagement in 2025, a record high of USD 32.6 billion. This was dominated by construction contracts for two mega projects in aluminum and steel in Kazakhstan, worth USD 19.5 billion together. However, other regions also saw major deals, the African continent in particular. Interestingly, data from the report shows a higher proportion of engagement in processing rather than extractive mining facilities. Processing of mined minerals and metals is seen by many resource-rich countries as a key strategy for moving up value chains, particularly in green technologies. For now, however, it is unclear if the data represents a trend or simply a one-off. In contrast, transportation infrastructure is in decline, with only USD 13.3 billion, the least since the BRI began life being touted primarily as a global connectivity project. Nedopil Wang suggests this may be connected to problems securing finance for traditional infrastructure projects, including the fall in lending from China’s development finance banks. Africa rising In 2025, the largest market for Chinese companies’ engagements along the BRI was Africa. The Belt and Road partners on the continent saw USD 61.2 billion worth of engagement, a 283% expansion compared to 2024, according to the report. The majority of that engagement was in the form of construction contracts, rather than investment. Nedopil Wang indicates this may have to do with Chinese companies seeking ways to avoid US tariffs. Akeredolu from the University of Bristol points to “Africa’s growing role in resource security amid global supply-chain fragmentation” as another reason shaping the boom in Chinese engagement in African economies. “Whether this is good news for African governments depends on bargaining power,” says Akeredolu. “Where states can secure local content, downstream value addition, or revenue-sharing, opportunities exist. Where engagement is limited to turnkey construction without equity or technology transfer, the developmental upside is thinner.”