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한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском Russia is a distinctly Nordic country. Its Arctic coastline stretches for twenty-four thousand kilometers, and almost two thirds of Russia’s territory is covered by permafrost. Among all Arctic states, Russia has by far the most numerous resident communities in the region in total exceeding two million people (approximately a half of the global Arctic population). All of the biggest cities to the North of the Arctic Circle—Murmansk, Vorkuta, Norilsk—are located in Russia. A very large part of Russia’s history for the last millennium has been included a relentless quest for fur, fish, timber, empty lands and new trading routes along the endless Arctic Ocean. Historians still debate whether this perpetual drive to the North has been a Russian blessing or a Russian curse. The expansion in the Northern direction offered the nation a variety of unique opportunities, but it also created numerous challenges that other Europeans never confronted. In any case, this movement had a critical formative impact on forging the Russian character and left a deep imprint on the national mentality. This heritage will undoubtedly stay with Russians in future, affecting their perceptions of themselves, the overall worldviews as well as many specific economic, social, military and other decisions. Economy Today, the Arctic region houses less than 1.3% of Russia’s population, but it accounts for some 12–15% of the national GDP and for 25% of all the exports. One fifth of all Russia’s oil and four fifth of natural gas are extracted here. The Arctic continental shelf, which remains not fully explored, contains even more hydrocarbons—at least 85 tln cubic meters of natural gas and 17.3 bln tons of oil. With many old easily accessible deposits of hydrocarbons on the continent being depleted, the only way for Russia to remain an energy superpower is by moving further North and by mustering its capacities of offshore drilling under quite harsh climate and weather conditions. Beyond oil and gas, Russia’s Arctic can offer such important minerals as nickel, copper, iron core, rare earth elements, platinum, palladium, etc. However, deep-water drilling not makes extracted hydrocarbons and other minerals quite expensive; for instance, most of sea-based oil repositories in the Arctic turn profitable with oil prices staying at USD 70–80 per barrel. With the global energy transition taking speed it is not clear whether international markets are likely to sustain long term demand for the expensive Russia’s Arctic fossil fuels. Besides, quite often this type of deep-water drilling requires a lot of state-of-the-art technologies that Russia does not always has at its disposal. For a long time, Moscow counted on its Western partners (US, Norway, Germany, UK) to get access to such technologies, but the geopolitical environment of today has made this cooperation impossible. Today, Russia counts mostly on China to replace its former partners from the West, but many China’s energy companies have to exercise caution and sometimes practice over-compliance with Western technology transfers restrictions fearing possible secondary US and EU sanctions. Another evident economic opportunity for Russia in the Arctic region is the Northern Sea Route (NSR)—a 5,600 km long transportation corridor that remains the shortest shipping route between Europe and the Asia-Pacific. With the Arctic ice melting and navigation seasons in the North getting longer due to global warming, NSR becomes commercially more attractive. Another assumed comparative NSR advantage is that it does not contain any security risks comparable to those existing today in the Red Sea or in the Gulf of Aden and has no physical restrictions that limit the cargo traffic through the Panama or Suez canals. Nonetheless, these are both technical and political obstacles on turning NSR into a major international transit route. The seas in the North of Eurasia are mostly very shallow and large modern deep draught container ships simply cannot use them without expensive dredging. Furthermore, the coastal infrastructure along NSR needs quite radical modernization and further maintenance. On top of these complications, today it is hard to imagine that EU states would accept NSR as a preferred transit corridor from the Asia-Pacific using Russia as the main link in this transit. This is why the odds are that in the nearest future NSR will be used mostly to serve Russia’s domestic cabotage needs as well as to ship Siberian oil, coal and LNG to China, India and other consumers in Asia. With due commitment, the annual size, which now amounts to almost 40 mln tons, can be doubled by 2030 and later on it can reach even 150 mln tons a year, but it will hardly ever successfully compete with the Suez Canal that can handle up to 150 mln tons of cargo in just one month. Security The security significance of the Arctic region for Russia has two distinctly different dimensions. First, such a long maritime border creates potential vulnerabilities and has to be protected against possible conventional encroachments (these might include not only actions taken by hostile states, but also by private poachers, human traffickers, etc.). Second, the Arctic region provides Russia with a unique unrestricted access to high seas for the national Strategic Naval Forces that are an organic part of the country’s nuclear triad; this access has to be preserved at any cost to maintain credible nuclear deterrence vis-a-vis the United States and its NATO allies. A conventional challenge to the Russian Arctic could theoretically emerge either in the East, with an adversary entering the region through the Bering Strait, or in the West, from the NATO bases in North Atlantic of from Norway. The ongoing climate change and the Arctic ice melting may further increase Russia’s security vulnerabilities, opening the Arctic waters for more intense military traffic. It seems that for the time being Moscow is not particularly concerned about security challenges coming from the Asia-Pacific, though the recent changes in the defense postures of Japan and South Korea and even of a more remote Australia are significant enough to keep a close eye on them. The NATO naval capabilities in the West arguably present a much more immediate security challenge to Russia, especially with Finland and Sweden having joined the Alliance and Norway having lifted some of its earlier limitations on NATO’s use of the Northern Norwegian coastline. Being a predominantly continental military power, Russia cannot hope to defeat NATO in a large-scale conventional naval war, but it can try to deny NATO forces access to the Russian Arctic while maintaining secure access to the Northern Atlantic for the Russian Navy. The nuclear dimension is different. The Russian Northern Fleet is the largest, the most advanced and the most strategically important fleet in the Russian Navy. Its missions are not limited to the Arctic region alone, but are explicitly global; the Northern Fleet should be in a position to operate in any remote corner of the planet deterring a nuclear attack on the Russian Federation. Some of the newest types of Ballistic Missile Submarines (Borei-class) and Nuclear Attack Submarines (Yasen-class) are operating from Arctic bases, as well as many surface battleships including the sole aircraft carrier that Russia has now (“Admiral Kuznetsov”). The choice of the Arctic region to host a critically important component of the national strategic deterrence force was to a degree involuntary—both the Black and the Baltic Seas are semi-enclosed and exits from them are easy to block, and the free access to the Pacific Ocean for Russia is restricted by the US military infrastructure in Japan, in South Korea and in Alaska. Today, Moscow invests a lot into enhancing and modernizing its military presence in the Arctic region including reopening some of the old Soviet installations that were put out of operation in 1990s and building new ones. These installations include search and rescue centers, deep-water ports, air bases and air-defense missile complexes. All these efforts notwithstanding, they clearly reflect defensive rather than offensive nature of Russia’s military posture in the Arctic region. The conventional Russia’s capacities in the region are not sufficient to confidently cut NATO communication lines in the Northern Atlantic and they can hardly justify an extended NATO forward naval deployment in the Arctic. Avoiding a self-destructive navel arms race in the Nigh North remains a critical challenge for both Russia and its Western adversaries. Environment and Social issues Russia’s Arctic region is warming at a rate that is three times faster than the global average. In some parts of this vast territory (e.g. the North-Eastern tip of the Eurasian continent) the speed of warning is even higher. There is a widely shared view that global warming might have a positive impact on the region opening new opportunities in agriculture, transportation, fisheries, offshore oil and gas drilling and so on. Indeed, some of these opportunities might prove to be very real. However, the likely negative repercussions of global warming for the Arctic should not be underestimated. These include an accelerated coastal erosion, increased frequency of floods and other natural disasters decay of local ecosystems. The most visible manifestation of global warming detrimental impact on the region is permafrost thawing, which is expected to affect at least two thirds of the infrastructure in the coming years, including houses, bridges, railroads, highways, sea and river ports, airports and so on. The likely accelerating rise of sea levels would also have profound implications for the region; the West Siberian Lowlands are particularly vulnerable and a part of this huge landmass might ultimately turn into a seabed. Since Russia cannot stop global warming on its own, it pursues policies of climate change adaptation, including enhanced permafrost monitoring, enforcing new construction standards, creating additional wildlife sanctuaries for endangered species and reducing black carbon emissions. On top of the growing climate change pressure, Russia has to face many social problems in its Arctic region. The overall Arctic population of the country is steadily declining all the time since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Though the decline is not very steep—up to 20 thousand people a year,—for a rather modest Arctic community it is nevertheless quite significant. The Arctic salaries usually exceed Russia’s average, but the costs of living in the region are also higher than in the South. Long and dark winters, harsh cold winds and generally inhospitable environment do not provide incentives to settle in the region. The federal government is trying to cope with this problem by offering affordable housing loans, investing into public transportation and health systems, supporting local colleges and Universities and subsidizing social and cultural life in the region. A lot will depend on whether the Russian leadership has the needed resources to continue these initiatives for a long time and whether economic activities in the Arctic can go far beyond extracting mineral resources, fishing and transportation. Like many other Arctic countries, Russia faces many challenges related to indigenous communities residing in the North. Altogether these communities amount to approximately 250 thousand people belonging to at least forty different ethnic groups. Climate change is only one side of the problem that these groups face today though it contributes to shifting animal migration patterns, disrupting subsistence practices like reindeer herding and fishing, inundating villages and threatening traditional ways of life. However, even putting aside global warming one should confess that oil and gas exploration as well as other large-scale mineral resources extraction projects often lead to pollution and displacement of indigenous peoples from their ancestral lands. At the same time, being scattered along very large territories, indigenous peoples face difficulties in accessing healthcare, education, and legal services. It is not easy to combine traditional cultural and social practices with successful careers in modern business or in the rapidly changing public sector. There are no magic solutions to indigenous people’s problems. Yet, the existing Russian and foreign experience suggests that that the severity of these problems can be significantly reduced by implementing a broad range of economic, administrative, legal and social actions. These actions should include engaging representatives of indigenous population into bodies of local self-governance, shifting economic modernization plans from extensive growth to sustainable development, building resilient private-public partnership with local NGOs engaged, creating systems for assessing the impact of climate change on indigenous communities and involve them in environmental monitoring. First published in the Guancha.cn.

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском This piece was originally published on March 11, 2025, by the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). View the original publication on the FPRI website.https://www.fpri.org/article/2025/03/forceful-taiwan-reunification-chinas-targeted-military-and-civilian-military-measures/ Bottom Line China is systematically preparing for a forceful reunification campaign by redesigning and intensifying military and civilian-military measures such as military mobilization, amphibious capabilities, standardization of operations, and resource stockpiling. The People’s Liberation Army’s expanded and improved military exercises around Taiwan since August 2022 have been shifting toward more coercive and multi-domain operations to assert control over the region. These systematic and incremental military and civilian-military measures might provide China with the tools to successfully conduct a potential forceful reunification with Taiwan in the near future. For nearly a century, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan have largely avoided direct military confrontations across the Taiwan Strait. However, there have been four notable exceptions: the Taiwan Strait crises of 1954–55, 1958, 1995–96, and most recently, 2022–23. In the first three instances, the status quo was primarily restored following the crisis. However, recent events suggest worrying trends highlighting that Beijing is preparing for a forceful reunification with Taiwan. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping has already made reunification with Taiwan a part of his signature China Dream, announced during the 19th Party Congress meeting in 2017. However, this was not the first time Taiwan was featured prominently in speeches by top Chinese leaders. As political scientist Ketian Zhang highlights in her book China’s Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion, annexing Taiwan is considered a core interest of China, with official references to its significance appearing regularly since 2003. The most recent instance was Xi Jinping’s New Year’s speech on December 31, 2024, where he declared, “No one can stop the historical trend of reunification of the motherland” (誰也不能充實祖國統一的歷史大勢). But beyond rhetoric and political posturing, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has taken concrete measures over the past decade to advance Beijing’s reunification agenda. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, these measures have intensified, reinforcing China’s willingness to use force. This article highlights the PLA’s systematic and incremental military and civilian-military measures—capabilities that might provide China with the tools to successfully conduct a potential forceful reunification with Taiwan in the near future. These measures include changing the institutions and patterns of PLA mobilization, constructing and using civilian infrastructure in military exercises, and establishing a new status quo through increasingly coercive military exercises around Taiwan. They also include standardization of the PLA for greater efficiency, effectiveness, combat readiness, stockpiling resources, and re-enlisting veterans with specific skills. This article builds upon Oriana Skylar Mastro’s arguments in her piece “The Taiwan Temptation,” which contends that China’s expanding military capabilities and rising nationalism could drive Beijing to contemplate using force for reunification with Taiwan. It identifies granular military details, especially post-2020, but it doesn’t venture into arguments about the timing of the reunification, potential diplomatic backlash, or economic costs of the invasion. Recent Military-Civilian Measures Since 2015, the PRC has undertaken significant organizational, legal, and structural reforms to enhance the National Defense Mobilization System (NDMS) (國防動員系統). As China scholar Devin Thorne highlights in his recent testimony to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, NDMS enables the PRC to harness its political, economic, technological, cultural, social, and other civilian resources from peacetime to wartime. This helps China to address a wide range of threats, such as escalations on its border, domestic instabilities, natural disasters, and other crises. It also bolsters China’s military logistics. As Thorne highlights, the key developments include the enactment of the National Defense Transportation Law in 2017, the introduction of updated auditing and surveying data on natural resources protocols in 2018 and 2021, the establishment of new NDMS offices beginning in December 2022, the creation of a new type of highly trained and professional local militia force since 2021, and the enhancement of cross-militia training initiatives starting in 2024. The PLA can mobilize private and civilian resources through the NDMS during national emergencies. It highlights China’s determination to prepare for potential contingencies, including escalation activities on its borders with India, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. Lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian War and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have further shaped these efforts. Once operational, the NDMS would ultimately allow the PRC to mobilize society and harness civilian and military resources more systematically and institutionally in case of a potential forceful reunification attempt with Taiwan. However, mobilizing resources and force is insufficient, as China would need to reach the other side of the Taiwan Strait during a potential escalation. Some scholars dismiss the idea that the PLA remains incapable of conducting amphibious operations at the scale needed to take control of Taiwan. Amphibious operations (landing assault) are one of the five most important campaigns (alongside anti-landing, island blockade, border area counter-attack, and counter–air-raid campaigns) discussed at length in the PLA’s first written doctrine on joint operations, Joint Campaign Outline, as operational requirements to take over Taiwan by force. Taiwan has 169,000 active military personnel, backed by 1.66 million reservists. As career naval officer Harlan Ullman explains, using the traditional three-to-one ratio of attackers to defenders taught at war colleges, the PLA would need to mobilize at least 507,000 soldiers. By extension, to cross the 106-kilometer-wide Taiwan Strait to conduct landing operations, China would need thousands of ships—far more than the current PLA Navy capabilities of 234 operating warships. However, China has long been working to mobilize its civilian infrastructure to support its military campaign. For instance, the PRC has emphasized the construction of roll-on/roll-off (RO-RO) (滾裝船) ships, which can use their power to set up ramps on docks or beaches to transport vehicles. Each RO–RO ship is estimated to carry at least three hundred vehicles and about fifteen hundred passengers. Since establishing the “strategic projection support ship fleets” in China’s major ship-building companies in 2012, the PLA has actively cooperated with local shipping companies to improve maritime “strategic delivery” capabilities by prioritizing the production of RO-RO ferries. According to naval strategist J. Michael Dahm, in January 2023, China had around thirty-one RO-RO ferries in operation. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out that the mainland shipyards would deliver up to two hundred RO-RO ships in the four years from 2023 to 2026. Furthermore, the PLA has used these ferries in military exercises in the Taiwan Strait since 2019. For instance, the first fifteen-thousand-ton ferry, Bang Chui Dao RO-RO ship (棒槌島滾裝船), participated in an amphibious assault exercise in 2019. Since then, the PLA has conducted such military exercises regularly. In July 2020, the PLA experimented with launching amphibious assault craft from civilian ferries toward the beach rather than port facilities, and it conducted day and night exercises off the coast of Guangdong Province. August 2021 was the first time the PLA used a ten-thousand-ton–class civilian ferry ship to land military exercises. Furthermore, in August 2022, after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, six of these RO-RO ships, which are operated by the Bo Hai Ferry Group Company (渤海輪渡集團公司) and are affiliated with the PLA Maritime Militia 8th Transport Brigade (海上民兵第8運輸旅), headed south toward Xiamen—the closest point to Taiwan. The RO-RO ferries were used more frequently in cross-transportation military exercises in July and September 2023. Furthermore, it was also discovered in January 2025 that China is building at least five landing barges at the Guangzhou shipyard with unusually long road bridges that extend from the bow of the ship, which makes them relevant to amphibious landing operations. Although these vessels and barges are extremely susceptible to attacks from Taiwanese F-16s, warships, and submarines, they would be supported by the PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, and PLA Rocket Force. The Changing Nature of Coercion and Military Exercises around Taiwan On September 17, 2020, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense published its first real-time military update, documenting PLA incursions into Taiwan’s de facto air defense identification zone (ADIZ). As meticulously recorded by Ben Lewis and Gerald C. Brown, by January 2025, there had been approximately eight thousand PLA violations of the ADIZ, including multiple crossings of the median line. Notably, Chinese warplanes crossed the median line in 2019 for the first time since 1999. However, Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan provided the PLA with a pretext to escalate its activities, culminating in multiple advanced military exercises conducted around Taiwan from all sides. Since August 2022, the PLA has conducted five large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. Most of them coincided with significant political events. For instance, the first military exercise in August 2022 followed Pelosi’s visit. This was succeeded by the inaugural PLA Joint Sword exercises in April 2023, coinciding with former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the United States and her meeting with then-Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy. Subsequent exercises included Joint Sword A in May 2024 and Joint Sword B in October 2024. These exercises aligned with the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te’s tenure and his National Day speech. The most recent military exercises, conducted in December 2024, were held shortly after President Lai Ching-te’s travels through the United States. Notably, President Lai did not engage with any major US leaders during his transit. However, the recent exercises display the opportunistic Chinese behavior of leveraging situations to establish a new normal through increasingly coercive activities in the Taiwan Strait. The Joint Sword A and B exercises and the December 2024 drills are particularly significant for understanding the evolution of China’s coercion pattern and the difference between China’s military posturing and its intentions in the Taiwan Strait. While the Joint Sword A and B drills were declared in advance and focused on anti-intervention and amphibious assault near Taiwan, recent December 2024 exercises intended to perform blockade, strategic deterrence, and anti-interventionism exercises. The latest exercises occurred across expanded locations like Fujian, Zhejiang, and the Western Pacific. Significantly, the December 2024 exercise, for the first time, witnessed all three of the PLA’s sea-facing theater commands—North, East, and South—jointly participating in an operation in the eastern waters of China, a key demand by the leadership to achieve multi-domain joint operations capabilities. Notably, these instances reveal that the Chinese leadership is keenly aware of the PLA’s pre-existing weaknesses, like amphibious assaults and anti-intervention operations, and has been pushing the PLA to address this gap gradually. They also leveraged elements of strategic deterrence and surprise while adhering to steps toward joint combat operations, a prerequisite for a forceful reunification. Geographically, these exercises extended beyond the Taiwan Strait to cover broader areas, including Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and the Western Pacific, indicating a shift toward controlling key maritime zones in the First Island Chain. Thus, with active participation from all major PLA services and the three sea-facing theater commands, and indulgence in numerous aspects of warfare targeted toward the PLA’s primary strategic direction—Taiwan—these exercises signalled a more nuanced and multi-layered operational focus. Multiple Standardizations within the PLA Over the past seven years, particularly in the post-pandemic period, China has prioritized comprehensive standardization of procedures with the PLA and its auxiliary support systems—non-combat systems and components that support and sustain military operations. PLA leadership has issued numerous directives to achieve uniformity across various domains, such as the construction of barracks, military equipment procurement, and the establishment of standardized military training grounds. These efforts are extended to standardizing resource allocation, engineering procurement, equipment support, logistical operations, medical services, communication infrastructure, cybersecurity systems, and intelligence gathering and analysis mechanisms. These initiatives highlight China’s attempt to enable standardization within the PLA’s military operations to enhance its overall efficiency, effectiveness, and combat readiness. Streamlining key processes, including operational logistics, equipment maintenance, and strategic communication networks, would help the PLA to accelerate achieving capabilities to perform multi-domain integrated joint operations. Standardization facilitates interoperability across services, theaters, and arms, resulting in seamless coordination among ground, naval, air, space, and cyber units. Developing these capabilities is a prerequisite for conducting multi-domain integrated joint operations, a requirement for forceful Taiwan reunification. They are also indicative of the PLA’s steps toward achieving operational readiness. It is particularly relevant in regional and near-regional escalations, such as those in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean, which could be possibilities during the Taiwan reunification campaign. Resource Stockpiling Resource stockpiling is an important indicator of a nation’s preparedness for a potential conflict. It involves the systematic accumulation of critical materials, energy reserves, food supplies, and industrial inputs essential during wartime. Such activities are often undertaken to ensure self-sufficiency, mitigate vulnerabilities, and maintain resilience in the face of potential embargoes, trade disruptions, or blockades. Agricultural economist Gustavo F.C. Ferreira highlights in his testimony to the US-China Economy and Security Review Commission that China has been significantly increasing its energy resource reserves, particularly coal, crude oil, and natural gas. The country has built an extensive storage capacity for crude oil, estimated to exceed 1.8 billion barrels, including strategic petroleum reserves and underground storage facilities. Additionally, he points out that China’s coal production has ramped up aggressively, with approval of expansion projects equivalent to the European Union’s annual coal production in just one year. He notes that beyond energy resources, the stockpiling extends to other critical areas such as food (grains and protein sources), strategic metals (rare earth, copper, and lithium), and technological components (semiconductors). These measures are supported by state policies to reduce China’s reliance on global markets and ensure continued operation during a conflict or escalation. Similarly, there are reports about China’s record 105.03-million-metric-ton import of soybeans in 2024. This marks a 6.5 percent increase from 2023. This surge is possibly due to China’s efforts to prepare for a contingency, particularly in anticipation of intensified trade tensions with the United States. Researcher Zongyuan Zoe Liu’s work highlights China’s strategies to shield its economy from potential Western sanctions by drawing lessons from sanctions imposed on Russia. She notes China’s attempt to increase economic and technological self-sufficiencies by immunizing its economy against sanctions and building financial resilience against potential sanctions by the United States. Re-enlistment of Veterans Since 2017, the PLA has notified several enlistment orders for veterans with specific skill sets. A key focus has been the integration of veterans into civil-military roles. This is supported by policies to re-enlist them in specialized units adhering to Xi’s stated and revealed military goals for the PLA. For instance, in the case of Taiwan-focused operations, the PLA’s re-enlistment efforts focus on operational readiness by re-enlisting veterans skilled in amphibious operations, cyber warfare, and missile systems. Since 2022, there has been an emphasis on integrating these veterans into critical roles, such as reserve forces, militia coordination, and rapid mobilization units. Beyond these six measures, several other developments—China’s heavy investment in dual-use infrastructure such as ports and airfields on the east coast, development of amphibious and airborne military capabilities like the large Type 075 landing ships and Y-20 aircraft, investment in offensive intelligence and cyber capabilities, deployment of strategic missile systems like the DF-15 and DF-21, training of the maritime militia with the PLA and their expansion to support the armed forces whenever required, and the integration of real-time battlefield awareness via the BeiDou navigation system—are additional factors to conclusively determine the PLA’s intention and readiness for a potential reunification campaign with Taiwan. Conclusion It is a political decision to pursue the reunification campaign. Western scholars dismiss such arguments on the basis of the PLA’s perceived lack of military preparedness and the significant economic costs China would incur during and after a reunification attempt. However, as this essay highlights, China is keenly aware of these considerations and is taking proactive steps to limit the fallout, if not eliminate it. This essay doesn’t argue whether China would attempt a forceful unification campaign or the cost of its campaign. Instead, it argues that through a combination of military and civilian measures, an effort has been made to address the possible critical vulnerabilities in military and economic sectors. The question remains about the PLA’s ability to execute and sustain complex cross-strait operations, especially after targeted military purges in 2023 and 2024. Every measure mentioned here can be seen in isolation and not as a part of a complex puzzle that indicates that the PLA is preparing to invade Taiwan. However, these measures involve systemic integration with military logistics, enabling rapid deployment and sustainability when required. A steady accumulation of capabilities indicates deliberate preparation for eventualities that may align with China’s political-military objectives across the Taiwan Strait.

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском Abstract This paper departs from an assumption derived from Liberal Intergovernmentalism theory: Germany is a de facto leader of European integration processes and the European Union as an institution.The first part of the analysis explores priorities and their corresponding challenges for the new German CDU-led cabinet. It examines issues around the ongoing war in Ukraine, transatlantic relations, and outstanding questions about German-China cooperation.The second part looks at the recently proposed Security and Defence Union (SDU) project and its various challenges.In conclusion, it is suggested that Germany will likely dominate future defence efforts, the actual shape of which will also be determined by other players such as the US, Russia, China, Iran, Israel, India or Turkey.Key Words: Germany, Foreign Policy, EU, Geopolitics Introduction According to the Federal Election Commission, the German election on February 23 saw a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5%. That's an increase from 76.6% in 2021 and the highest voter participation since unification in 1990.  With vote counting finished, preliminary results show that the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, and its sister Christian Social Union (CSU) won the election with 28.6% of the vote. (As of the writing of this paper, the coalition negotiations are in progress, and the new Merz-Lead government will likely be formed by Easter this Year).  Before we analyse the challenges ahead of Merz's Government, let us briefly note that Friedrich Merz belongs to the so-called 'Davos Crowd'. He regularly attends the World Economic Forum Meetings. Before fully dedicating himself to politics, Merz worked as a corporate lawyer and held a significant position at BlackRock, a leading global investment management firm. He served as the head of the supervisory board of BlackRock's German branch, a role that has drawn scrutiny due to BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, being a key figure at the WEF. By his critics, Merz is seen as a 'globalist puppet' who is likely to promote Agenda 2030-related policies and the Klaus Schwab Great Reset initiative at the expense of German citizens.   Challenges ahead of Germany and its new political leadership Under the new CDU-led Government, Germany will face significant international challenges in supporting Ukraine, managing US relations, and balancing China ties. - The war in Ukraine The ongoing war in Ukraine is a pressing issue, requiring Germany to sustain its support for Ukraine while managing its own energy security and economic interests. This involves coordinating with other EU and NATO members, which could be challenging given potential fatigue and differing national priorities.  The ongoing war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia's invasion in 2022, remains a critical challenge for Germany. The new CDU-led Government must sustain this support amidst potential fatigue and economic pressures. It goes without saying that the war has disrupted energy supplies, with Germany suspending the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and facing higher energy costs. The CDU, under Merz, has advocated for a strong stance against Russia. Still, challenges include maintaining EU unity, especially with some member states favouring dialogue with Moscow, and managing domestic economic impacts, such as inflation and cost-of-living pressures. This support towards sustained support to sanctions against Russia seems necessary, but it may strain Germany's resources and require coordination with NATO and EU partners. - Navigating Transatlantic Relations Germany's relationship with the United States, mainly through NATO, is vital for its security and economic interests. Even before the Trump election, German experts were ready to address the incoming challenges.  Trump's opposition to previous policies, such as climate commitments and trade agreements, has led to tensions. Traditionally aligned with the US, the CDU knew the need to balance cooperation on security issues, such as defence spending, with potential trade and climate policy disagreements. This challenge is compounded by the need to prepare for a world where Germany must pay more for its security, especially given the war in Ukraine.  Today, Germans are painfully aware that the relations with the United States are crucial, especially given that Trump's presidency has already led to tensions over trade and security policies. Germany seems willing to balance cooperation with the US while asserting its interests and those of the EU. This will be complicated due to conflicting interests regarding trade and the economy. Trump is expected to continue his protectionist policies, imposing tariffs on German goods like cars to address the trade deficit. This will likely lead to retaliatory measures from Germany and the EU, straining economic ties.  In fact, the European Commission already declared it would impose "countermeasures" from April 1 in response to US tariffs of 25 per cent on steel and aluminium imports.   Regarding defence and security - Trump will likely pressure Germany to increase defence spending, possibly threatening to reduce US troops in Germany, as he did in his first term by announcing a withdrawal of 12,000 troops (later reversed by Biden). This could push Germany to enhance its defence capabilities and meet NATO targets.  As for climate change and energy - Trump's scepticism towards climate agreements, such as the Paris Accord, will likely continue, clashing with Germany's leadership in renewable energy and its goal to phase out coal by 2038 at the latest.   Finally, there is the question of foreign policy, especially Russia and Ukraine - Trump's potential alignment with Russia could complicate Germany's position, particularly given its significant support for Ukraine. Reports suggest Trump might cut Ukraine out of negotiations with Russia, forcing Germany to take a more independent stance.   - Balancing Economic Relations with China Germany's economic ties with China are significant, with China being a primary export market and investment partner. However, the new German Government faces the challenge of addressing security and human rights concerns, such as intellectual property theft and China's assertive foreign policy. The CDU-lead coalition may push for greater diversification of supply chains and stricter regulations, as suggested by recent analyses.   This balancing act is crucial, as economic dependence on China could limit Germany's ability to take a firm stance on delicate issues regarding human rights. The challenge is maintaining economic benefits while mitigating risks, potentially through EU-level coordination and bilateral agreements, which could create diplomatic pressures and affect Germany's global trade position. Economic ties and the challenge of de-risking. Germany has deep economic ties with China, with significant trade and investment flows, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors. However, the new government will face the challenge of reducing economic dependence, as outlined in the CDU's election platform, which calls for "reducing reliance on China".  This is driven by concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities, as seen in the CDU's criticism of previous decisions like allowing a Chinese state-owned company to invest in Hamburg's port.  The challenge lies in implementing de-risking strategies without triggering economic repercussions, such as reduced exports or investment pullbacks. Recent statements from Merz, such as warning German firms about the "great risk" of investing in China, indicate a stricter stance. Still, experts question whether this rhetoric will translate into firm policy, given the economic interests at stake.   Security concerns and strategic competition are at the forefront - Friedrich Merz recently grouped China with Russia, North Korea, and Iran in an "axis of autocracies," highlighting perceived threats to German and European security.  The CDU's position paper, adopted around Easter 2023, states that the idea of peace through economic cooperation "has failed with regard to Russia, but increasingly also China," signalling a shift toward a more security-focused approach.  This includes addressing issues like technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and cybersecurity, which could strain bilateral relations. The challenge is strengthening defence and economic security measures without escalating tensions, particularly as China's military capabilities grow. Merz's focus on European strategic autonomy, especially in light of US policy shifts under Donald Trump, may lead to increased cooperation with EU partners in China. Human rights and values-based diplomacy are important for the incoming CDU-led government. Therefore, it is likely to take a firmer stance on human rights issues, reflecting the CDU's emphasis on preserving the rule-based international order.  Merz has consistently called China "an increasing threat to [German] security," suggesting a values-based approach that could lead to diplomatic tensions.  The challenge is maintaining constructive engagement while addressing these issues, especially as China has offered a "stable, constructive partnership" post-election, seeking to inject "new vitality" into China-EU relations. Balancing economic interests with values-based diplomacy will be a key test for Merz's government.  As for the coordination with EU partners, Germany's China policy should probably align with the EU's broader strategy, which has shifted toward de-risking under the European Commission. This requires coordination with other member states, some of whom may prioritise economic ties over security concerns, creating potential friction. The challenge is to ensure a united EU front, particularly in trade negotiations and investment screening, where Germany's leadership will be crucial. Merz's advocacy for improved coordination with major European allies such as France and Poland suggests focusing on EU unity. However, coalition dynamics, potentially involving the dovish Social Democrats, could dilute this approach.  Compared to Angela Merkel's pragmatic approach and Olaf Scholz's cautious stance, Merz's leadership is expected to mark a "Zeitenwende" or turning point, with a more critical and security-focused China policy.  However, the extent of change depends on coalition dynamics, with potential partners like the SPD possibly moderating his approach, creating tension between rhetoric and policy implementation. The EU as a security actor This section of the paper outlines the significant challenges ahead for the EU, considering Germany's influence and the broader geopolitical landscape, especially regarding the future EU defence cooperation and its potential relations with NATO. According to German experts and policymakers, The EU must maintain unity in supporting Ukraine amid Russia's ongoing invasion. Under the CDU, Germany will most likely continue its policy in this regard, providing military aid and economic support. According to the Federal Foreign Office, the German Government has, since the start of the war, made available around 43.62 billion euros in bilateral support for Ukraine (as of 31 December 2024); this aid includes the critical area of air defence, a substantial winter assistance programme and energy assistance, help for those who have fled Ukraine, humanitarian aid, mine clearance operations and assistance with efforts to investigate and document war crimes. Furthermore, Ukraine and Germany signed a bilateral agreement on security cooperation on 16 February 2024.  European Army The former Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, at Charles University in Prague on 24 August 2022, recently elaborated on German leadership's vision regarding the Europen defence efforts. His presentation paints a broad picture of the future of the EU at the beginning of the 3rd decade of the 21st century against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Among the four 'revolutionary' ideas mentioned by Scholz, two stand out in particular. Firstly, given the further enlargement of the European Union for up to potentially 35 states, a transition is urged to majority voting in Common Foreign and Security Policy. Secondly, regarding European sovereignty, the German Chancellor asserts that Europeans grow more autonomous in all fields, assume greater responsibility for their security, work more closely together, and stand yet more united to defend their values and interests worldwide. In practical terms, Scholz indicates the need for one command and control structure for European defence efforts.   The German leadership is not always openly claimed, at least verbally. Instead, the German National Security Strategy of 2023 mentions Germany's 'special responsibility' for peace, security, prosperity, and stability and the Federal Government's 'special responsibility' for establishing the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity.   In the same vein, German leadership posits their country as a leader in European Security, declaring the importance of becoming the 'best equipped armed force' in Europe.  Former Chancellor Scholz would, however, make it an open claim at times: "As the most populous nation with the greatest economic power and a country in the centre of the continent, our army must become the cornerstone of conventional defence in Europe, the best-equipped force".  The re-entrance of Trump into global politics only reinvigorated German calls for stronger defence cooperation. Amid a drive to shore up support for Ukraine after Donald Trump halted US military aid and intelligence sharing, European leaders held emergency talks in Brussels (6 March 2025). They agreed (Hungary did not support the document) on a massive increase in defence spending. According to the European Council's Conclusions, the European Commission is to propose a new EU instrument to provide Member States with loans backed by the EU budget of up to EUR 150 billion.  Apart from that, the document mentions several other instruments that are supposed to enhance Europe's defence capabilities: additional funding sources, new EU instrument for loans, support from the European Investment Bank (EIB), mobilising private financing, priority areas for defence capabilities (air and missile defence; artillery systems, including deep precision strike capabilities; missiles and ammunition; drones and anti-drone systems; strategic enablers, including in relation to space and critical infrastructure protection; military mobility; cyber; artificial intelligence and electronic warfare), joint procurement and standardisation, simplification of legal frameworks and finally coordination with NATO. Overall, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, presented a plan worth EUR 800 billion to increase European defence spending against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Will it be enough to create actual European defence capabilities, finally? Time will show. Europeans have been talking about common European defence for decades. So far, most of their achievements fall short of lofty political declarations.  Consequently, on March 19 this year, the European Commission unveiled the Joint White Paper for European Defence 2030.  (White papers are policy documents produced by the Governments that set out their proposals for future legislation.) Accordingly, the 22-page-long document consists of numerous 'bold' ideas to advance European defence cooperation toward a European Army. The key threats to European Security include correspondingly: military aggression from Russia, strategic competition (there is increasing strategic competition in Europe's wider neighbourhood, from the Arctic to the Baltic to the Middle East and North Africa), transnational challenges (issues such as rapid technological change, migration, and climate change are seen as serious stressors on political and economic systems), actions of authoritarian states (countries like China are asserting their influence in Europe and its economy, posing a strategic challenge due to their authoritarian governance style), hybrid threats (these include cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and the weaponisation of migration. The document notes that these threats are interconnected and increasingly prevalent), geopolitical rivalries (ongoing geopolitical tensions in various regions, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, are highlighted as contributing to instability that directly affects Europe) and last but not least instability from neighboring Regions (proximity to conflict zones, especially in North Africa and the Middle East, leads to spillover effects such as migration and economic insecurity).  Notably, at the very beginning of the document, the EC makes an unequivocal statement: "The future of Ukraine is fundamental to the future of Europe as a whole. Since 2022, we have seen a full-scale, high-intensity war on the borders of the European Union with hundreds of thousands of casualties, mass population displacement, huge economic costs and deliberate destruction of vital energy systems and cultural heritage. The outcome of that war will be a determinative factor in our collective future for decades ahead". The document proposes several measures to support Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict, mainly through a "Porcupine strategy" to enhance Ukraine's defence and security capacity. The "Porcupine strategy" includes elements such as:  Increased Military Assistance - The EU and its Member States should significantly step up military and other assistance to Ukraine (providing large-calibre artillery ammunition with a target of delivering a minimum of 2 million rounds per year, supplying air defence systems, missiles (including deep precision strikes), and drones, supporting Ukraine's procurement of drones and further developing its production capacity through joint ventures with European industries and training and equipping Ukrainian brigades and supporting the regeneration of battalions). Direct Support to Ukraine's Defense Industry (the document emphasises the importance of directly supporting Ukraine's defence industry (encouraging EU Member States to procure directly from Ukraine's defence industry for donations to Ukraine and utilising EU loans to boost Ukraine's defence industry spending, estimated to reach around EUR 35 billion in productive capacity by 2025). Enhanced Military Mobility (the EU aims to improve military mobility corridors extending into Ukraine, facilitating smoother deliveries of military assistance and enhancing interoperability). Access to EU Space Assets (Ukraine should have enhanced access to EU space-based governmental services, which would aid in its defence capabilities). Coordination of Military Support (the EU Military Staff Clearing House Cell will coordinate military support for Ukraine, enhancing collaboration with NATO and other partners). Integration of Ukraine into EU Defense Initiatives (the document proposes integrating Ukraine's defence industry into EU initiatives and encouraging its participation in collaborative defence projects. Conclusion A 'Security and Defence Union' (SDU) has been recently proposed as a new institutional form of military cooperation among EU Members.  It is suggested that the SDU includes the UK, and given the special attention paid to Ukraine in the White Paper, it is logical to surmise that it (Ukraine) will also be a de facto member. The devil lies in details, however, and so financially speaking, Europeans have to address numerous challenges. For example, the European Defence Fund (EDF) details Euro 8 billion over 7 years (approx. Euro 1.12 billion/year), supports R&D, and has committed Euro 5.4 billion since May 2021.        Meeting these ambitious goals will be especially challenging given the funding constraints (EU instruments like EDF and EDIP have limited impact; EDIP at €750 million/year is less than 1% of €90 billion 2024 procurement, needs €9 billion/year for 10% impact), capability and industry gaps (post-Cold War cuts left significant gaps, needing €160 billion by 2018 if 2008 levels maintained, €1.1 trillion if all spent 2% GDP 2006-2020), political and partnership issues (US scepticism, especially under second Trump administration, makes EU states cautious), policy integration (balancing security and economic priorities).  Against this backdrop, Germany claims to rise to the occasion and take the leading role, passing a new defence budget, referred to by media as 'bazooka'.  A massive increase in military spending is paralleled by another military aid package to Ukraine (The €3 billion package approved by the Bundestag Budget Committee comes on top of the €4 billion in military aid to Ukraine already planned in the 2025 budget).  Where does it leave NATO? 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한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском Introduction The Ansar Allah "Houthis" group announced the resumption of its ban on Israeli ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, March 11, 2025, following the expiration of the deadline it had given Israel to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. This was stated in a recorded speech by the group's military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, posted on his account on the X platform, where he declared that their forces "confirm the resumption of the ban on all Israeli ships in the designated operational areas in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf of Aden, following the expiration of the deadline granted by the group's leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, to mediators to pressure the Israeli enemy into reopening the crossings and allowing aid into the Gaza Strip." In response, U.S. Secretary of  Defense Pete Hegseth vowed on Sunday, March 16, 2025, that the United States would carry out "relentless" strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen until the group ceases its military operations targeting American assets and global shipping routes. In this context, Houthi-affiliated media outlets reported on Sunday, 16March 2024, that approximately 40 American airstrikes on the capital, Sanaa, as well as Saada and Al-Bayda, resulted in a preliminary toll of 32 casualties and over a hundred injuries. These operations take place amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran and signs that U.S. strikes are focused on the tactical deterrence of the Houthis, making them part of a broader American strategy aimed at containing Iranian influence. This escalation coincides with the collapse of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, reinforcing the possibility that the region may be heading toward a new phase of entangled military confrontations. This paper examines the objectives and messages underlying this military campaign, focusing on the prospects of continued escalation between the United States and the Houthis and the possibility of it extending into a direct confrontation with Iran. It also seeks to answer a critical question: Will Washington succeed in deterring the Houthis through these operations, or will this strategy lead to a greater escalation that could involve a broader confrontation with Iran? This is especially relevant given the growing indications that Israel is intensifying pressure on the United States to push it toward direct conflict with Tehran. Amid the complexities of the regional landscape, the paper considers the strategic dimensions of these operations, including U.S. messaging toward Iran, Israel’s efforts to expand the scope of confrontation, and the role of international allies in shaping the escalation pathways. It also explores possible scenarios for future developments, ranging from continued limited strikes to the potential outbreak of a large-scale regional confrontation. From this perspective, the paper will highlight the key American messages and underlying objectives of this military campaign, which should be taken into account when discussing the primary goals of this campaign at this critical juncture. These can be interpreted as follows: American Messages; During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump adopted a "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, which manifested in the imposition of a broad set of economic sanctions that significantly impacted the Iranian economy, along with the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal on May 8, 2018. Continuing this approach, Trump reaffirmed his hardline stance on Iran's nuclear program even before officially assuming office again in January 2025. Since announcing his candidacy for the presidential elections in July 2024, he has emphasized the need for a "new nuclear deal" with Iran. On September 26, 2024, he stated: "We must reach an agreement, because the consequences are impossible. We must reach an agreement." As part of his escalating position toward Tehran, upon taking office, Trump signed a presidential memorandum on February 5, 2025, reinstating the maximum pressure policy on the Iranian government, aiming to block Tehran’s path to acquiring a nuclear weapon and counter its destabilizing influence abroad, according to a White House statement at the time. In a further escalation against what is known as Iran’s "proxies" in the region, the United States launched large-scale airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen. The Pentagon announced that since Saturday, March 15, 2025, it had targeted 30 Houthi sites in the largest U.S. military operation in the Middle East since Trump's return to the White House.  This ongoing military campaign cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader U.S. approach toward Iran, which is characterized by stringent economic sanctions and firm official statements underscoring Washington’s determination to exert maximum pressure on Tehran. These military strikes are part of a wider American strategy aimed at delivering clear and direct messages to Iran: that the United States is not only capable of countering any Iranian threat but is also resolute in defending its interests and allies in the region. Reinforcing this stance, U.S. President Donald Trump  declared on March 17, 2025, that Iran would be held accountable for any future attacks carried out by the Houthis, a clear indication that the Trump administration might consider direct strikes against Iran if the Houthis continue targeting American interests—especially if evidence emerges of military or intelligence support from Tehran. This statement reveals the potential for U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets or Iran’s affiliated groups in the region as part of an escalatory strategy designed to deter Tehran—not only in response to proven arms support for the Houthis in the future but also concerning its nuclear program. This comes within the context of Trump’s threats before launching the military campaign against the Houthis. On March 13, 2025, Washington delivered an official message to Iran, giving it a choice between negotiating a new agreement or facing direct military action. However, Tehran rejected negotiations under threat, further increasing the likelihood of escalation in the coming period. Israel’s Efforts to Open the Iran Front; The recent U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen are part of an escalating military confrontation in the Middle East, coinciding with Israeli attempts to drag the United States into a broader conflict with Iran. Since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza in October 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has been pushing Washington toward a more aggressive stance against Iran. This was highlighted by The Washington Post on October 14, 2025, which noted Israel’s readiness to launch military strikes against Iranian targets, necessitating U.S. support and backing. Israel seeks to expand the scope of regional conflict by urging Washington to respond militarily to Houthi threats in the wake of the Gaza war. It appears that Tel Aviv is attempting to lure the United States into escalating tensions with Iran, particularly given Tehran’s logistical and military support for the Houthis. Thus, targeting the group could serve as a preliminary step toward broadening military operations to include direct Iranian targets, increasing the likelihood of escalation with Iran. Israel is betting on escalation, as suspicions grow over Netanyahu’s intentions to widen the war with Iran by exploiting ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Yemen. Israel views continued military pressure on Tehran and its proxies as a means to weaken Iran’s regional position and potentially push the U.S. toward more confrontational steps. This comes at a time when the influence of Iran’s allied factions has waned—particularly in Syria, where Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed on December 8, 2024, and in Lebanon, following Israel’s extensive strikes on Hezbollah, which resulted in the deaths of most of its senior leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Therefore, targeting the Houthis carries a direct message to Tehran: Washington is prepared to expand its operations against regional threats, which may provoke escalatory responses from Iran. This scenario aligns with Israel’s objectives of reinforcing its stance against Iran. Since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in January 2025,  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been retreating from the deal under intense criticism from Israel’s far-right factions. In this context, Israel has resumed and expanded its attacks on Gaza. On Tuesday, March 18, 2025, Netanyahu’s office announced that Israeli forces had targeted Hamas positions across the Gaza Strip. This move is part of an escalatory policy aimed at keeping the war ongoing and preventing any long-term truce, as Israel considers continued military operations necessary to impose its political and security conditions. Furthermore, Israel is seeking to shift the confrontation to broader fronts. The Israeli military is expanding its presence in Syria, continuing airstrikes against Iranian targets and affiliated militias, while maintaining its military foothold in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in November 2024. This indicates that Tel Aviv is not only intensifying its military operations in Gaza but is also pushing for a larger escalation against Iran, which is the main backer of Hezbollah and Palestinian armed factions. This reflects Israel’s intent to keep regional tensions high and reshape the rules of engagement in the Middle East. In light of this, Israel is expected to cooperate with the United States in conducting precision strikes against the Houthis in Yemen in the near future, as well as in potential assassination operations targeting Houthi leaders. Additionally, it may participate in military actions against nuclear and military sites inside Iran, potentially triggering Iranian retaliation and further regional tensions. This escalation would serve to appease Israel’s far-right factions and the ruling coalition, which has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the government and topple Netanyahu over his handling of Gaza and Iran. The escalation opportunities with Iran U.S. strikes may push the Houthis to intensify their attacks, especially in parallel with Israel’s escalation of airstrikes on Gaza at the moment. In his latest speech, the leader of Ansar Allah linked the cessation of attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea to the entry of aid into Gaza, which is not expected at this stage "despite mediators calling for a return to negotiations," given Israel’s resumption of the war on Gaza alongside the American military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. This may necessitate additional American escalation, particularly after Trump held Iran responsible for any future Houthi attacks. On March 16, 2025, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, vowed to respond to any attack following threats from U.S. President Donald Trump against Tehran over Washington’s strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. In statements broadcast on state television, Salami said, "Iran will not start a war, but if anyone threatens it, we will respond appropriately, decisively, and firmly." This statement reflects Iran’s deterrence policy while also keeping the door open for a potential escalation if Washington decides to attack Iran by directly targeting Iranian sites. Hossein Salami’s statement carries a dual message: Tehran affirms that it does not seek war, but at the same time, it brandishes the threat of a strong response if it faces any direct threat. This message primarily targets the United States and serves as a means to deter any further escalatory measures by Israel regarding the Iranian nuclear file.  Salami's statement also aims to rely on escalatory rhetoric to reinforce his image domestically, especially amid the ongoing economic and military pressures on Iran. These statements also seek to reassure the Iranian public that the regime remains strong and capable of defending its interests against both the United States and Israel. Despite Iran’s statements affirming that it does not seek war, it simultaneously adopts the approach of "flexible deterrence," leaving the door open for escalatory options if Tehran is subjected to direct strikes. This keeps the region facing open-ended scenarios, ranging from the continuation of indirect confrontation through proxies to the possibility of events spiraling into a broader confrontation if Washington and Tel Aviv decide to go beyond limited strikes to directly targeting Iran. The Limits of U.S. Effectiveness in Deterring the Houthis Since the escalation of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the United States has adopted a dual military and political strategy in an attempt to restore lost deterrence. However, questions remain about the effectiveness of this policy in achieving its desired objectives, particularly given the Houthis' ability to adapt to U.S. pressure and continue their escalatory maritime operations. As part of these efforts, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the formation of a multinational naval force in December 2023 to protect navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden under Operation "Prosperity Guardian." While this force has enhanced security measures, Houthi attacks have persisted, indicating that military deterrence alone has not been sufficient to completely halt the attacks.So far, the Houthis have divided their maritime campaign into five phases, which can be outlined as follows:• Phase One: Attacks focused on missile strikes targeting Israel, beginning in October 2023 with the Gaza war, and on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea starting in November 2023.• Phase Two: In December 2023, attacks expanded to include all ships heading to Israeli ports. Vessels with direct or indirect ties to Israel, as well as those that had previously visited Israeli ports, became targets.• Phase Three: In January 2024, attacks expanded further to target ships linked to the United States and the United Kingdom.• Phase Four: In May 2024, the scope widened again to include ships owned or operated by entities that also own vessels visiting Israeli ports.• Phase Five: This phase was announced after the Houthis launched the "Yafa" drone at Tel Aviv on July 19, 2024, marking a continuation of the previous phases. In each phase, the group managed to force more vessels to avoid the southern Red Sea. By the fourth phase, from at least late April 2024, additional shipping companies engaged in trade with Israeli ports had started avoiding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. At the same time, on certain occasions, the attacks drew attention to other regional activities, such as Russia’s oil trade. U.S. efforts to restore deterrence against the Houthis face complex challenges, as limited military strikes and political sanctions have not decisively curbed the group’s escalation. While Washington seeks to strike a balance between applying military pressure and maintaining regional stability, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to adapt to these pressures and expand their maritime operations, benefiting from Iranian support and escalating geopolitical tensions. In this context, the airstrikes launched by the Trump administration in Yemen marked the first time the U.S. had explicitly targeted Houthi leaders, in addition to their military centers and command-and-control hubs. The success of American deterrence against the Houthis may largely depend on adopting more aggressive strategies, such as the targeted assassination of key Houthi leaders—similar to Israel’s approach against Hezbollah commanders. This tactic could weaken the group's central leadership and disrupt its organizational structure, potentially limiting its ability to coordinate maritime attacks. However, this approach carries significant risks, as it may provoke the Houthis into even more aggressive retaliatory actions and potentially increase the likelihood of direct Iranian involvement in the confrontation. Possible Scenarios Iran Avoiding Direct Support for the Houthis to Prevent a Confrontation with Washington: Iran's lack of direct response to Israel’s escalation against Hezbollah in Lebanon—despite its declared "Unity of Fronts" doctrine—suggests a likely pattern that could also apply to its handling of U.S. escalation against the Houthis in Yemen. While Iran utilizes proxy groups to expand its regional influence, its direct military involvement remains constrained by complex strategic calculations related to the balance of power, the cost of escalation, and the ability to deter adversaries without being drawn into an open confrontation. In the case of Hezbollah, despite Israel’s recent military actions, Iran chose to regulate the intensity of the confrontation rather than push for a full-scale war. This reflects a strategy of "remote management," where Tehran supports its allies without direct engagement. The same approach may apply to the Houthis, particularly since the U.S. escalation occurs within the broader context of the Washington-Tehran standoff over the nuclear issue and aims to deter Houthi threats to international shipping. This perspective is reinforced by a statement from Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on March 16, 2025, in which he asserted that "Iran will not start a war, but it will respond appropriately, decisively, and resolutely if threatened." This statement indicates that Tehran prefers to maintain a defensive stance rather than an offensive one that could lead to full-scale military escalation. At the same time, it does not want to appear weak in the eyes of its adversaries, meaning it may scale back its support for the Houthis in the short to medium term. It can be argued that U.S. military action against the Houthis is unlikely to trigger direct Iranian intervention unless Iran itself comes under direct attack. Should Iran face large-scale strikes on military sites within its borders, it may respond by expanding support for its regional proxies—despite their declining influence—through the provision of more advanced military technology or by mobilizing other militias in the region to divert pressure away from Iran. This scenario reflects a recurring pattern in Iranian strategy, wherein Tehran employs a "brinkmanship" approach without crossing red lines that would provoke a direct U.S. military response. Regional Escalation: The recent escalation—marked by the Houthis’ announcement of targeting the U.S. aircraft carrier Harry Truman and a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea on March 18, 2025—signals a critical phase in the ongoing confrontations, particularly under the hardline Trump administration. Unlike the Biden administration's more restrained approach, Washington may push for a broader escalation against the Houthis' capabilities in Yemen, especially if Tehran's continued involvement in supplying the group with advanced weapons and technology is confirmed. The Trump administration is likely to view sustained attacks on its forces and naval assets as crossing a red line, potentially prompting an expansion of retaliatory measures. This could include intensified airstrikes on Houthi military sites within Yemen and targeting the infrastructure Iran uses to transfer weapons to the group. U.S. actions may also escalate to the point of considering direct strikes against Iran itself. However, given the geopolitical complexities, American strikes may not be limited to Yemen and Iran alone. They could extend to Iran’s regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon, particularly if Iran-aligned factions target U.S. interests in the region. These factions have the capability to pose direct threats to American assets, which may prompt Washington to expand its military responses beyond the immediate Houthi threat.The Most Likely Scenario:  Given the current circumstances, the most probable scenario is the first one—where Iran avoids directly supporting the Houthis or engaging in a full-scale war with Washington, while the U.S. expands its military strikes against the Houthis' infrastructure. This stems primarily from Iran’s strategic caution in avoiding a direct confrontation with both Tel Aviv and Washington, aligning with its broader approach to regional crises, as seen in its management of the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Iran is likely to enter the conflict only in one case—if it faces a direct military attack. Conclusion The recent escalation in the Red Sea reflects the complexity of the regional landscape, where international and regional interests intersect, keeping the crisis open to further developments in the near future. While global powers seek to contain tensions and prevent a full-scale escalation, striking a balance between deterrence and containment remains a crucial factor in shaping the region’s security strategy. In this context, the United States faces significant challenges in deterring the Houthis, as the group has demonstrated a high degree of adaptability to military and political pressures. On the other hand, Iran’s approach to the U.S. escalation against the Houthis reflects a cautious strategic stance, as Tehran prefers to avoid direct confrontation with Washington while continuing to support its allies indirectly. Given the ongoing tensions, the Red Sea remains a key focal point in global security and economic calculations, necessitating more comprehensive approaches to address the escalating challenges.

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском Since Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rise to power in 2002, one might ask whether we can speak of an Erdoğan Doctrine in Turkish foreign policy. The answer is no. Unlike classical doctrines that follow a consistent ideological or strategic framework, Erdoğan’s approach to both domestic and international politics is marked by pragmatic opportunism, transactional maneuvering, and tactical adaptability. His foreign policy does not stem from a fixed set of principles but rather from a fluid, recalibrated strategy designed to ensure political survival, power consolidation, and economic self-preservation. Yet, despite this adaptability, Erdoğan has consistently instrumentalized Islamism, Ottoman nostalgia, and Turkish nationalism as mobilizing forces, shaping both Turkey’s domestic landscape and its global positioning. These ideological currents serve not as doctrinal foundations but as strategic tools, deployed selectively to consolidate power and justify an increasingly interventionist and authoritarian foreign policy. Rather than an Erdoğan Doctrine, what we observe is a dynamic political strategy, one that shifts according to regional and global realities, balancing ideological rhetoric with realpolitik pragmatism. Erdoğan’s political trajectory has been characterized by extreme opportunism. Early in his tenure, he presented himself as a pro-Western democrat, championing Turkey’s EU membership and economic liberalization. However, as his grip on power consolidated, he shifted towards authoritarian populism, discrediting Western institutions and embracing an anti-Western, neo-Ottomanist discourse. His ability to manipulate ideological positions for strategic gain suggests that Erdoğan’s doctrine is less about consistent principles and more about sustaining power through ideological fluidity. This transactional nature extends to foreign policy, where Erdoğan has engaged in contradictory alliances. Turkey has simultaneously sought stronger ties with Russia while maintaining a position in NATO, balancing relations with Iran while confronting it in Syria, and denouncing Western imperialism while leveraging economic ties with the EU. The 2016 failed coup attempt marked a pivotal moment, after which Erdoğan’s rhetoric became deeply anti-Western, securitizing foreign policy as an extension of domestic political struggles. One of the defining characteristics of the Erdoğan strategy is the obliteration of the traditional boundary between domestic and foreign policy. In Erdoğan’s Turkey, foreign policy decisions are primarily driven by domestic political calculations rather than long-term strategic considerations. Military operations in Syria and Libya were framed as nationalist victories, consolidating Erdoğan’s support base while deflecting attention from economic crises. Political rivals and dissidents are routinely accused of being Western puppets or linked to foreign conspiracies, reinforcing anti-Western nationalism. Erdoğan actively uses the Turkish diaspora in Europe as a political tool, portraying himself as the protector of Muslims abroad and positioning Turkey as the leader of a global Islamic movement. This lack of distinction between internal and external affairs means that every foreign policy move is designed for domestic legitimacy. Military interventions, diplomatic crises, and economic policies are all packaged for domestic consumption to maintain Erdoğan’s image as a leader defying Western hegemony. Erdoğan has strategically invoked Islamist rhetoric and Ottoman nostalgia to mask domestic corruption, repression, and economic mismanagement. His use of Islamism is highly pragmatic rather than ideological. While Erdoğan once promoted a pro-business, moderate Islamist stance, he has increasingly aligned with more radical Islamic groups to rally conservative voters. Neo-Ottomanist narratives have been used to justify interventions in the Middle East and Africa, portraying Turkey as the rightful heir to regional leadership. The Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) has become an ideological tool for Erdoğan, framing his rule as divinely sanctioned while attacking secular and Western influences. Erdoğan’s economic policies reflect the same transactional nature. He has oscillated between free-market policies to attract Western investment and state-led crony capitalism to consolidate his own economic elite. However, his militarization of foreign policy has created deep economic vulnerabilities. Erdoğan’s decision to purchase Russian S-400 missiles resulted in U.S. sanctions and exclusion from the F-35 program, exacerbating Turkey’s economic downturn.  Aggressive gas exploration efforts isolated Turkey from the EU and regional actors, worsening trade relations. While Erdoğan has relied on Qatari financial support, recent Gulf rapprochements have left Turkey geopolitically and economically vulnerable. Turkey’s economic dependence on Western markets and capital contradicts Erdoğan’s anti-Western rhetoric, further proving that his doctrine is driven by short-term political survival rather than a coherent strategic vision. Rather than a structured geopolitical vision, the Erdoğan strategy is best understood as a political survival mechanism that combines: Extreme pragmatism and transactionalism, shifting alliances and ideological positions as needed; the fusion of domestic and foreign policy, where foreign affairs are a continuation of domestic power struggles; the instrumentalization of Islamism and Ottoman nostalgia, masking authoritarianism and economic decline; short-term opportunism at the cost of long-term strategy, leading to Turkey’s increasing diplomatic and economic isolation. Erdoğan’s rule has been marked by ad-hoc decisions, contradictions, and reactive policies that serve his immediate political needs rather than a grand vision for Turkey’s future. This transactional-opportunism makes the Erdoğan Doctrine an impossibility—while he projects an image of Islamic, nationalist leadership, his foreign policy is dictated by opportunism, insecurity, and personal political survival. The consequences of this approach are a weakened economy, diplomatic isolation, and an increasingly authoritarian state, making the long-term sustainability of Erdoğan’s model highly uncertain.  Another major characteristic of Erdoğan’s strategy is the securitization of domestic and foreign policy. Since Erdoğan ascended to the presidency in 2014, and particularly after the failed military coup of July 15, 2016, Turkish foreign policy has undergone significant transformations. These changes are marked by a growing reliance on securitization—the framing of domestic and international challenges as existential threats requiring extraordinary measures. Erdoğan’s approach has been shaped by three key factors: Islamist ideology, Ottoman nostalgia, and the deep-seated trauma of the Treaty of Sèvres. These factors have driven Turkey into high-risk foreign policy ventures, many of which have backfired, leading to strategic isolation, economic instability, and declining influence on the global stage. Erdoğan’s political strategy has been centered on constructing an image of perpetual threat to the Turkish state and nation. This approach is deeply rooted in the historical narrative of betrayal and encirclement—most prominently symbolized by the Treaty of Sèvres (1920), which sought to partition Anatolia and subject it to foreign control. This “Sèvres Syndrome” has been instrumentalized to justify an aggressive foreign policy, military interventions, and an increasingly authoritarian domestic stance.  Erdoğan has fused Turkish nationalism with political Islam, portraying Turkey as both the heir to the Ottoman Empire and the champion of Sunni Muslims. This synthesis has fueled a revisionist foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and North Africa. However, these ambitions have often led Turkey into conflicts with former allies and regional powers, undermining its strategic position. Erdoğan’s foreign policy, shaped by securitization, Islamist nostalgia, and historical trauma, has backfired spectacularly in multiple arenas. While he has sought to redefine Turkey as a great power, his tactics have instead led to growing regional isolation, economic instability, and internal discontent. The failure to balance nationalist rhetoric with pragmatic diplomacy has left Turkey more vulnerable than ever—caught between Western skepticism, Russian opportunism, and Middle Eastern volatility. Unless Erdoğan recalibrates his approach, Turkey risks further decline in both regional and global affairs. Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Erdoğan came to power in 2002, Turkish foreign policy has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a Western-oriented, EU-focused trajectory to a more assertive, independent, and, increasingly, anti-Western stance. While initially adopting a “thin populist” approach that emphasized regional engagement, neo-Ottomanist rhetoric, and Turkey’s role as a bridge between East and West, the AKP’s foreign policy has evolved into a “thick populist” approach dominated by a strong anti-Western narrative. This transformation was solidified after the Gezi Park protests in 2013 and, even more so, after the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, which the Turkish government blamed on the West-backed Gülen Movement. The growing securitization of Western powers and the increasing emphasis on Turkey’s Islamic and civilizational identity have led to an overt de-Europeanization of Turkish foreign policy. Erdoğan’s securitization of foreign policy has manifested in several high-risk ventures that have largely failed to achieve their intended objectives: Turkey’s military interventions in Syria (Operation Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, and Peace Spring) were aimed at eradicating the Kurdish YPG, which Ankara views as an extension of the PKK.  However, this policy has led to severe tensions with the United States, which has supported the YPG as a key ally against ISIS. The result is a diplomatic impasse that has weakened Turkey’s influence in Syria while increasing its military entanglements. Turkey’s intervention in Libya, backing the Government of National Accord (GNA) against Khalifa Haftar, was an extension of Erdoğan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions. While it temporarily secured Turkish energy and maritime interests, it alienated Egypt, the UAE, France, and Greece, leading to counteralliances that have restricted Turkish maneuverability.  Erdoğan’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system was framed as a move for strategic autonomy but resulted in sanctions from the United States and exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program. While this was meant to demonstrate Turkey’s independence, it has made the country increasingly reliant on Moscow, further complicating relations with NATO. Erdoğan’s aggressive posture has damaged Turkey’s relations with Western allies, leading to economic consequences, loss of diplomatic leverage, and isolation in Europe. Erdoğan’s confrontational approach—such as threatening to flood Europe with refugees—has eroded trust and reinforced perceptions of Turkey as an unpredictable and transactional partner. Erdoğan’s security-driven foreign policy has had dire economic consequences. The Turkish lira has suffered dramatic depreciation, foreign investment has declined, and inflation has soared. The Turkish public, initially supportive of Erdoğan’s assertiveness, is increasingly disillusioned as economic hardship worsens. Erdoğan’s securitization of policy has created short-term political gains but long-term strategic vulnerabilities. No one takes Turkey as a credible ally. His nationalist-Islamist rhetoric has been effective in consolidating domestic support, especially among conservative and nationalist voters, but it has also deepened Turkey’s diplomatic and economic isolation. Finally, Erdoğan’s foreign policy has been anti-Western.  A key driver of Erdoğan’s anti-Western foreign policy has been the gradual populist transformation of the AKP and consolidation of his power by purging other prominent personalities within the party.  Initially, under the leadership of Erdoğan, the party adopted a moderate, reformist discourse that prioritized EU membership, economic liberalization, and cooperation with Western allies. However, over time, populist tendencies became dominant, with Erdoğan increasingly portraying himself as the true representative of the “real” Turkish people against both domestic and international elites. Populist foreign policy, as seen in Turkey and elsewhere, follows a binary logic that pits “the virtuous people” against “the corrupt elite.” In the Turkish context, this binary has been extended to the international arena, with the West—Europe and the United States—constructed as the foreign equivalent of the corrupt elite, standing in opposition to Turkey’s rightful role as a global power.  The early years of AKP rule were marked by a pragmatic approach that balanced Turkey’s Western orientation with a regionalist vision. This period saw active engagement with the EU, NATO, and the U.S., while at the same time expanding relations with the Middle East, Balkans, and Africa under Ahmet Davutoglu’s “Strategic Depth” doctrine. During this era, anti-Western rhetoric was limited, and Turkey’s regional activism was framed as complementary to, rather than a rejection of, its Western ties. Following the Gezi Park protests and, more dramatically, the 2016 coup attempt, Erdoğan’s rhetoric became openly hostile toward the West. Western governments were accused of plotting against Turkey, harboring terrorists, and undermining Turkey’s sovereignty. Erdoğan framed his leadership as a struggle against an imperialist West determined to prevent Turkey’s rise. As he declared in 2019, “Turkey is now a country whose agenda is not determined [by others] but who determines her own agenda.” Thus, Turkey’s foreign policy became an extension of Erdoğan’s domestic populist struggle, where anti-Westernism served as both an ideological tool and a strategy for political survival. Another major factor behind Turkey’s anti-Western turn is the fusion of Islamist and nationalist discourses, which have become the defining ideological pillars of Erdoğan’s foreign policy. This ideological shift is best understood through the contrast between Kemalism and Neo-Ottomanism. Traditionally, Turkey’s foreign policy was shaped by Westernization, secularism, and nationalism. The country’s founding ideology sought integration with Europe, NATO membership, and alignment with the U.S. in the Cold War. However, Kemalist elites were also skeptical of foreign entanglements, leading to a cautious and isolationist diplomacy. Neo-Ottomanism and the “New Turkey” Vision of Erdoğan is anti-Western, Islamists, and serves for Erdoğan’s regime survival rather than national interest of the country. Under Erdoğan, a revisionist historical narrative emerged, portraying the Ottoman Empire as a great civilization that was undermined by Western colonialism and internal betrayals. In this vision, modern Turkey is the rightful heir of the Ottoman legacy and should reclaim its leadership role in the Islamic world. Erdoğan has repeatedly invoked the trauma of the Treaty of Sèvres (1920)—which proposed partitioning Turkey—as evidence that the West continues to conspire against Turkish sovereignty.  This ideological framework has shaped Turkey’s new foreign policy identity, positioning it as a leader of the Muslim world rather than a subordinate member of the Western alliance. As Erdoğan’s government became more authoritarian and Islamist, relations with the EU steadily deteriorated. The post-2016 crackdown on opposition figures, journalists, and academics led to increasing criticism from European leaders, reinforcing Erdoğan’s narrative that the EU is hypocritical, biased, and Islamophobic. While Turkey officially remains an EU candidate country, Erdoğan has openly questioned the sincerity of European leaders, arguing that the EU is a “Christian club” that will never accept a Muslim-majority country.  Erdoğan’s government has rejected Western liberal values, reversing democratic reforms and undermining the independence of judicial institutions, the media, and civil society. As a result, Turkey has moved closer to authoritarian models seen in Russia, China, and the Gulf states. Erdoğan’s anti-Western and de-Europeanized foreign policy is not just a reaction to specific diplomatic disputes—it is a structural transformation rooted in populism, ideology, and strategic recalibration. By casting the West as Turkey’s primary “other,” Erdoğan has crafted a nationalist-Islamist narrative that legitimizes his power, mobilizes his base, and redefines Turkey’s role in the world.  While this approach has granted Turkey short-term strategic flexibility, it has also left it increasingly isolated, economically vulnerable, and diplomatically constrained. The long-term sustainability of Erdoğan’s foreign policy remains uncertain, especially as domestic economic troubles and shifting global dynamics continue to reshape Turkey’s geopolitical landscape. One of the key arguments in understanding Turkey’s foreign policy shift is the interaction between domestic authoritarianism and international behavior. Unlike traditional middle powers, which pursue stability, Turkey’s domestic political dynamics—specifically Erdoğan’s populist authoritarian rule—have fueled its unusual, risk-prone foreign policy choices. Erdoğan has increasingly used foreign policy as a tool for domestic political survival, framing Turkey as a besieged nation fighting Western imperialists. Opposition parties are often accused of being aligned with “foreign agents” or Western powers, further deepening polarization. Nationalist rhetoric has been amplified during military operations, boosting public support for interventions in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском In the current global disorder, the countries that comprise Latin America are simultaneously emerging as key players in tipping the balance of global power and are courted by major powers seeking influence and access to their natural resources, infrastructure, and services. For a decade, China has been growing in importance in the region, driven by its interest in establishing itself there through the Belt and Road Initiative, loans, investment, and construction, challenging the United States for relevance on the continent as a preferred ally. Currently, another player of the magnitude of India is slowly but surely making inroads in Latin America in trade, financing, and political relations, and is being courted by many Latin American states as an alternative to the risks that staking everything on an alliance with China can entail. Brazil, the undisputed regional leader, maintains privileged relations with both Asian giants, and the three countries cooperate and share interests and forums, such as the BRICS+ and the G20+, where common projects are developed. Introduction: a relationship with historical background The end of the Cold War and the rise of globalization led to growing regional competition in Asia, focused on both political influence and economic dominance. One of the most significant developments in the aftermath of these transformations has been the consolidation of China as a regional and, subsequently, global power. In the current context, China, India, and other nations are seeking to expand their alliances and redefine their strategies, including their relationship with Latin America, a region that has experienced multiple phases of engagement with external actors throughout its history. During the 19th and 20th centuries, interaction was centered on Europe and the United States; however, since the 21st century, the dynamics have diversified and taken on a multipolar character. Today, Latin American countries are the object of interest of various powers, from China and Japan to India and Iran. While China's presence in Latin America is evident and significant, India has traditionally maintained a more distant stance, except for Brazil.1 For decades, the limited interaction between India and Latin America was mainly attributed to factors such as geographical remoteness and lack of strategic opportunities. However, this perception has changed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. In recent years, China has considerably expanded its influence in the region through various mechanisms, while India seeks first to integrate into this dynamic and, in the medium, to compete with China in certain areas. China has established itself as one of Latin America's main trading partners, as well as one of its largest global lenders and investors.2 Its influence does not currently compare with that of India, but rivals that of the United States, the only country that surpasses it in terms of exports and imports in the continent, and the European Union in multiple sectors. In the political and diplomatic sphere, China has made significant progress, such as persuading five Latin American countries - Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama - to transfer their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People's Republic of China, although Honduras, Guatemala and Paraguay are still doing so. It has also established alliances with countries sanctioned by the US - Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela - which it has supported with loans, military cooperation, and investment. However, in a context of global uncertainty, several Latin American countries are seeking to diversify their strategic alliances and reduce the risks of excessive dependence on a single power. In this scenario, India emerges as a relevant actor, with the potential to balance China's presence in the medium term in key sectors such as trade, infrastructure, supply chains, technology and defence, where India still has ample room for growth in the continent. China in Latin America: economic and strategic expansion China has indisputably been the most influential actor in Latin America between the two Asian powers, especially in the economic sphere, standing out for its participation in infrastructure projects in the Southern Cone as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Since the beginning of the 21st century, its presence in the region has grown rapidly, with Chinese state-owned companies consolidating themselves as key players in strategic sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and technology, surpassing in some areas even the United States, traditionally dominant in these areas. In addition, China has strengthened its influence through cultural and diplomatic mechanisms. The links between China and Latin America have historical roots dating back to the 16th century, when the Manila Galleon facilitated the exchange of goods such as porcelain, silk and spices between China and the Viceroyalty of New Spain. After the independence of Latin American countries in the 1840s, there was a major Chinese migration, with hundreds of thousands of workers employed on sugar plantations, in mines and as servants in countries such as Cuba and Peru, a phenomenon that persisted throughout the 19th century. Today, Brazil, Cuba, Paraguay, Peru, and Venezuela are home to the largest Chinese communities on the continent. Initially, most Latin American countries did not recognize Mao's government after the founding of the People's Republic in 1949; however, following US President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972, most Latin American states established diplomatic relations with Beijing, thus initiating a period of cooperation in the cultural, economic and political spheres. On the economic front, China has established itself as a major player. In 2000, the Chinese market represented less than 2 % of Latin American and Caribbean exports, but its demand, especially for raw materials, has grown exponentially.3 By 2024, China would absorb 17% of these exports, with a value of more than 500 billion dollars.4 The main products exported by the region include soybeans and other vegetables, copper, oil and other raw materials, while imports from China consist mainly of manufactured goods. In countries such as Brazil, Chile and Peru, China has become the main trading partner.5 The strengthening of economic ties has been formalized through comprehensive strategic partnerships with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. China has also signed free trade agreements with Chile - the first country in the region to do so in 2005 - Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Peru, while negotiations with Uruguay remain stalled. Within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, twenty-two countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have signed agreements with China, which have facilitated investments and loans amounting to more than USD 9 billion, equivalent to 6 % of China's total investment abroad. These investments, managed through the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank, have largely gone to energy and infrastructure projects, in many cases in exchange for oil. Venezuela has been the main recipient, doubling the amount received by Brazil, the second largest recipient.6 China's impact in Latin America is manifested in infrastructure development and the energy sector. Chinese investments have financed the construction of refineries and processing plants in countries with coal, copper, natural gas, oil, and uranium deposits. In the case of copper, China is the main buyer of Chilean production, purchasing more than 40 % of the country's exports. China has also taken a special interest in lithium, with significant investments in Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, countries that make up the so-called 'Lithium Triangle' and account for approximately half of global lithium reserves, although the development of these projects has raised environmental concerns.7 At the same time, China has promoted the financing of renewable energies, with outstanding initiatives such as the largest solar plant in Latin America in Jujuy, Argentina, and the Punta Sierra wind farm in Coquimbo, Chile. Since former Chinese President Jiang Zemin's historic thirteen-day tour of Latin America in 2001, high-level political exchanges have intensified. President Xi Jinping has visited the region five times since coming to power in 2013, most recently in November 2024, when he reaffirmed the construction of major projects, including the port of Chancay in Peru.8 China has financed various infrastructure projects in Latin America, including airports, roads, ports and rail networks. Chinese companies control more than a hundred ports around the world, of which at least a dozen are in Latin America and the Caribbean.9 In terms of technology and communications, China has promoted projects in artificial intelligence, smart cities and 5G networks, with the participation of companies such as Huawei. Likewise, cooperation in space has become relevant, with the installation of the largest Chinese space base abroad in Argentine Patagonia and the construction of satellite ground stations in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela.10 China has also consolidated its presence in Latin America through soft power strategies, strengthening cultural and educational ties through the Confucius Institute, student scholarships and the expansion of Spanish-language media, such as CGTN and Xinhua. Furthermore, it has reinforced its image as a supportive actor at the international level, which was evidenced during the COVID-19 pandemic with the supply of vaccines and medical equipment to governments in the region. In this context, China's influence in Latin America is projected as a long-term phenomenon, with implications that span the economic, political, and cultural spheres, in a scenario in which other powers, such as India, are also seeking a presence in the region. India's arrival and expansion in Latin America Historically, relations between India and Latin America have been limited due to geographical distance, the absence of common strategic interests and the lack of a consolidated bilateral agenda. Latin America occupied a marginal role in India's foreign policy, despite diplomatic visits such as Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru's 1961 visit to Mexico and Indira Gandhi's 1968 visit to eight countries in the region. A significant change occurred in the 1990s, when India signed trade agreements with seven Latin American countries and promoted the FOCUS LAC program (1997), designed to strengthen economic relations with the region.The turning point in India's perception of Latin America came in 2014, when the newly appointed prime minister, Narendra Modi, participated in the BRICS Summit in Brazil. The expansion of the India-Mercosur Preferential Trade Agreement, initially signed in 2004, but extended in 2016,11 evidenced India's commitment to strengthening its ties with the region. Bilateral trade between India and Latin America currently stands at USD 43 billion, with Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia as its main trading partners. Like China, India finds in Latin America a key source of mineral resources, such as copper, lithium, and iron ore, essential for its growing industrial demand. An example of this was the strategic partnership agreement signed in 2023 between India's Altmin Private Limited and Bolivia's state-owned lithium company. The region has also become an important partner in the supply of oil: in recent years, Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil have accounted for 30 % of crude oil exports to India. In return, India exports products from strategic sectors such as information technology and pharmaceuticals to Latin America. India is also involved in infrastructure development in the region, investing in railways, roads, and energy supply systems.12 In 2022, India's foreign policy gave a new signal of rapprochement with Latin America by bringing the Latin American members of the G20 (Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico) under the jurisdiction of the foreign minister, rather than a junior minister. In April 2023, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar made a historic visit to Guyana, Panama, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic, marking the first time an Indian foreign minister had visited these countries. This tour reflected the growing importance of Latin America on India's diplomatic agenda as the region with the second highest number of projects spearheaded after Asia: India currently has 181 projects in Asia, thirty-two in Latin America and the Caribbean, and three in Central Asia and Oceania. These initiatives have expanded qualitatively in recent years, especially in terms of the size of the credit lines and the complexity of the projects.13 While on 3 August 2023 and on the sidelines of the ninth meeting of the Confederation of India-Latin America and Caribbean Industry in New Delhi, Jaishankar advocated deepening India-Latin America engagements, especially in the areas of agriculture, supply chain diversification and mutual resource sharing partnership. Thus, while China has captured greater political and diplomatic attention in the region, India's presence has raised expectations.14 Unlike China, India is a democracy and faces similar challenges to many Latin American countries, which has facilitated its rapprochement with the region. Its economic growth has sparked interest in Latin America, leading several governments to prioritize relations with India in their foreign policy strategies. Although its expansion in the region responds in part to the intention of countering China's influence, India seeks to consolidate itself as an actor with a vision of strategic autonomy and a stance aligned with non-alignment, promoting relations based on cooperation and the diversification of partners. However, its presence still faces structural limitations, such as the lack of effective regional integration and its limited participation in key Latin American blocs such as the Central American Integration System (SICA), the Pacific Alliance, Mercosur or the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).15 At the G20 summit+, held in Rio de Janeiro on 18-19 November, Modi took the opportunity to hold bilateral meetings, apart from with Brazilian President Lula, with some of India's most important partners in the Latin American region, including Argentina and Chile, where a bilateral meeting with President Gabriel Boric marked the expansion of the India-Chile Preferential Trade Agreement, described by Chile as a genuine Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement on a par with those India has signed with the United Arab Emirates, South Korea or Japan, overcoming with Chile New Delhi's reluctance to corroborate these free trade agreements. India is aware that its influence in Latin America is minor compared to that of China, but it also recognizes its growth potential.16 One of its main resources to strengthen its presence in the region is soft power, especially through its cultural projection. Elements such as the Bollywood film industry, gastronomy, and traditional practices such as yoga have gained popularity in Latin America, facilitating the expansion of India's influence in the region and contributing to its positioning as an emerging global partner. Partners in BRICS+: China and India's influence on Brazil Both China and India have a special relationship with the Latin American giant, Brazil, as the three countries share several international forums, most notably BRICS+, of which Argentina - a candidate country and finally accepted as a member at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023 - dropped out in early 2024, after Javier Milei's victory in the presidential elections. Brazil has been a key country in the expansion strategy of China, which has become the main trading partner and one of its main investors, and now of India in Latin America, especially due to the economic size, natural resources and regional leadership capacity of the Brazilian giant.17 All in all, China has a more dominant presence in the Brazilian economy, while India is gaining space in the technology, pharmaceutical and energy trade sectors. If the trend continues, India could strengthen its influence, but it is unlikely to overtake China in the short to medium term. Starting precisely with China, diplomatic relations with Brazil have evolved significantly in recent decades, consolidating into a strategic link in the commercial, investment and technological spheres, except during Jair Bolsonaro's term in office between 2019 and 2023, when even China expressed concern over the hostile statements of the then Brazilian president.18 During the last two years the relationship has been on the right track and even in 2024 the fiftieth anniversary of the establishment of official relations was celebrated. In March 2023, Lula visited China with the aim of strengthening trade and political ties between the two nations, which had deteriorated during Bolsonaro's term in office. During the visit, an agreement was announced to trade in yuan instead of dollars, reducing dependence on the US financial system and strengthening Brazil's financial autonomy in the international arena.19 Apart from politics, and although Brazil has never joined the Belt and Road Initiative, bilateral Sino-Brazilian trade has grown steadily since the mid-2000s, dominated by the export of raw materials, especially oil, and attracting important Chinese state-owned companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec in its acronym) and China National Petroleum Corporation. Subsequently, Chinese investment diversified into strategic sectors such as power generation and distribution, with the presence of conglomerates such as State Grid and China Three Gorges, manufacturing, with the arrival of Chinese companies from various sectors, These include BYD, TCL, Gree, Midea and Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group, the mining sector, and the agricultural sector, where Chinese firms such as COFCO and Long-Ping High-Tech have expanded their operations, from product marketing to the manufacture of chemical inputs for agribusiness. In infrastructure, Chinese participation has been significant with projects driven by China Communications Construction Company and China Merchants Port, which in 2018 acquired the Paranaguá Container Terminal. The future seems to point towards increased Chinese investment in new communications infrastructure, energy transition and technology. In 2021, despite Bolsonaro's criticism, Brazilian regulators reversed their decision to ban Huawei from developing the country's 5G networks, which came weeks after China provided Brazil with millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccine20 , while two years later, the two countries announced their participation in joint technological projects such as the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) for monitoring the Amazon.21 India has also had a strong influence on Brazil, at least culturally, since Gandhi's time, as his teachings on non-violence gave rise to social movements and partly shaped the two countries' non-aligned foreign policy. Economically, Brazil is one of India's most important partners in Latin America, being the largest importer (over 41 %) and exporter (over 29 %) to India, with significant investments in sectors such as information technology, energy, mining, and automobiles. Already in 2022, India's exports to Brazil exceeded those of Germany, Australia, South Korea, or Indonesia. Brazil is now among the top ten export destinations from India, spurred by a 295% increase in refined oil sales. India's imports from Brazil increased, driven by purchases of soybean oil. Relations between Brazil and India have never been particularly intense, but under Lula's third presidency this has also changed. In the political sphere, they share strategic objectives, such as the reform of the UN Security Council, where they aspire to obtain a permanent seat, as well as their collaboration in global initiatives, such as the IBSA Dialogue Forum, the aforementioned BRICS+ and the G20+ of emerging economies. In 2020, the 'Brazil-India Defence Dialogue' was established for the first time and agreements were signed to expand technological collaboration in the military field. Brazilian companies such as Taurus have entered into partnerships with Indian companies, such as Jindal, for the joint production of armaments. In addition, Brazil is exploring the export of military technology, including cargo and training aircraft, armored vehicles and submarines, to which China, a traditional supplier of aircraft and equipment to several countries on the continent, including Brazil, responded in January 2025 by offering the Brazilian government the acquisition of the fourth-generation Chengdu-10 fighter.22 Finally, both states wish to diversify their external relations. India, concerned about its geopolitical rivalry with China, seeks a pragmatic balance between close relations with the US and other regional actors, such as in the Quadrilateral Dialogue (QUAD), while maintaining its long-standing ties with Russia. Historically, Brazil has sought to mitigate US influence in South America, something that continues under President Lula's government. However, like other Latin American countries, it is also aware of its economic vulnerability stemming from its high dependence on commodity exports to China and its current dearth of foreign investment. Another forum shared by Brazil, China and India is the G20+. The rotating presidency in 2024 was held by Lula da Silva, who focused the organization’s objectives on three priorities, highlighted in the final declaration: social inclusion and the fight against hunger and poverty; sustainable development, with energy transition and the fight against climate change and, thirdly, the reform of global governance institutions, both from China and India not only ratified the declaration, but even Narendra Modi devoted special attention to Brazil's priorities, echoing New Delhi's common interests in renewable energy, the elimination of poverty and hunger, and focusing on nutrition and food security.23 Xi Jinping, also present at the summit and later on an official visit to Brasilia, expressed his support for President Lula's proposal to create the Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty, underlining China's commitment to inclusive and equitable development, while signing 37 bilateral agreements between Brazil and China in various fields, such as trade, finance, infrastructure and environmental protection.24 Conclusion: Still unequal competition China and India have adopted different strategies in their relations with Latin America, strategies that have been marked by time in terms of their interest in being present in the continent. While China has established itself as a dominant player in recent times and in terms of investment and project financing in the main Latin American countries, India has awakened in the last decade after a historical lack of interest in this area and is beginning to focus an increasing presence on matters such as technological cooperation and trade in strategic sectors, especially the supply of crude oil. In fact, both China and India have realized that the South American region is a key partner for the supply of raw materials to economies in continuous expansion and, in terms of international politics, the consolidation of new alliances in the so-called global south. India is a potential competitor in several economic niches, and in some of them it is even a major player, such as in information technology, the pharmaceutical sector, where Indian companies have maintained a leading position in exporting products to Latin America, and the automotive industry, where sales are fairly balanced. However, they are the exception that proves the rule, since in general terms, China maintains a substantial advantage in trade and investment figures in Latin America, operating on a completely different scale to India and the result of its interest for much longer. Another difference between the two Asian giants in terms of their influence in Latin America is their involvement in treaties, agreements, and deeper bilateral relations with Latin American countries. Indeed, one of the main challenges for India lies in the lack of a stable institutional framework through which to strengthen its relationship with Latin American countries, unlike China, which has long established trade agreements and strategic initiatives with various countries and regional blocs, starting with the Belt and Road Initiative itself. India has not yet developed comprehensive free trade agreements, cooperation mechanisms similar to China's, or bilateral agreements with supranational groupings such as SICA, CELAC, Mercosur or the Pacific Alliance, which constrains the growth of its trade. On the other hand, India has an advantage over China, such as the prestige of its traditional non-alignment and its historical representativeness of developing countries. In a region like Latin America whose countries recurrent structural obstacles, such as inflation, social and political instability and chronic infrastructure deficits, the geopolitical context and the ideological leanings of the different governments make China's presence, its network of trade agreements and its diversified investment strategy stable... until now, as this may change in the future. Diversifying risks and investments with options such as India represents a positive factor for Latin American countries, as well as a significant challenge for India. The relationship between India, China and Latin America is beneficial for Latin American countries, which are expanding their possibilities for bilateral cooperation on issues such as trade, climate change and security, while increasing competitiveness between the two Asian giants in a scenario that has traditionally been geographically and culturally distant, but which is currently of unquestionable interest to them. So far, China's predominance in the region seems to remain unchanged and it has even overtaken the United States as the main trading partner and source of investment in most South American countries. Competing in this division could take India several years, although the Chinese example itself shows that the arrival of agreements, treaties, cooperation, and investment from India could exponentially increase its influence in the continent in a few years' time. In recent times, Latin America has diversified its economic and diplomatic relations, reducing its dependence on a single strategic partner, be it China or the United States, another major player in this game of competition in the region. Although the decline in the role of the United States is notorious, precisely because of the irruption of the Chinese presence,25 especially in the economy, many countries have continued to move towards greater autonomy and diversification of their international ties, a trend that seems to be consolidating, regardless of the changes in US policy with the beginning of Trump's second term in office in the United States and his policy towards Latin America. Both the desire to diversify relations beyond the China option and the possible US disinterest in the region may benefit India's interests, although it is clear that China will continue to be the dominant actor in the region. References 1 GANGOPADHYAY, Aparajita. "India-China Competitions in Latin America: Some Observations", Global & Strategis, Th. 8, No. 1. January-June, 2014. Available at: http://irgu.unigoa.ac.in/drs/bitstream/handle/unigoa/4110/Jurnal_Global_dan_Strategis_8%281%29_2014_1-13.pdf?sequence=1 (accessed 13/3/2025).2 SESHASAYEE, Hari. "India vs. China in Latin America: Competing Actors or in Separate Leagues?", The Diplomat. 19 May 2022. Available at: India vs. China in Latin America: Competing Actors or in Separate Leagues? - The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/india-vs-china-in-latin-america-competing-actors-or-in-separate-leagues/ (accessed 13/3/2025)3 DADUSH, Uri. "China's Rise and Latin America: A Global, Long-Term Perspective', Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 8 March 2012. Available at: China's Rise and Latin America: A Global, Long-Term Perspective | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2012/03/chinas-rise-and-latin-america-a-global-long-term-perspective?lang=en  (accessed 13/3/2025).4 "Chinese consumption growth boosts Latin American and Caribbean exports", Cobertura360. 8 March 2025. Available in: Chinese consumption growth boosts Latin American and Caribbean exports - Cobertura360 https://cobertura360.mx/2025/03/08/negocios/el-crecimiento-del-consumo-chino-impulsa-las-exportaciones-de-america-latina-y-el-caribe/ (accessed 13(3/2025).5 ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (ECLAC). Prospects for International Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2024. LC/PUB.2024/16-P, Santiago, 2024. 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Available in: Xi vuelve a América Latina para ganársela https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20241116/10111790/xi-vuelve-america-latina-ganarsela.html#foto-1 (accessed on 13/3/2025).9 LIU, Zongyuan Zoe. "Tracking China's Control of Overseas Ports", Council of Foreign Relations. 26 August 2024. Available at: Tracking China's Control of Overseas Ports | Council on Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/tracker/china-overseas-ports (accessed 13//2025).10 EVAN ELLIS, R. et al. "How are the United States and China intersecting in Latin America?" Brookings. 25 September 2024. Available at: How are the United States and China intersecting in Latin America? https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-are-the-united-states-and-china-intersecting-in-latin-america/ (accessed 13/3/2025).11 "Mercosur-India talks expected to expand preferential trade agreement", mercopress.com. 15 August 2016. Available at: Mercosur-India talks expected to expand preferential trade agreement - MercoPress https://en.mercopress.com/2016/08/15/mercosur-india-talks-expected-to-expand-preferential-trade-agreement (accessed 13/3/2025).12 SESHASAYEE, Hari. "Latin America's tryst with the other Asian giant, India", Wilson Center. May 2022. Available in: Microsoft Word - LAP PUB Template.docx (accessed 13/3/2025).13 JAISHANKAR, Subrahmanyam. The Indian way. Strategies for an uncertain world. Harper Collins India, 2020, pp. 107-108.14 "Jaishankar bats for deeper India-Latin America engagement', The Hindu. 3 August 2023. Available at: Jaishankar bats for deeper India-Latin America engagement - The Hindu https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jaishankar-bats-for-deeper-india-latin-america-engagement/article67153329.ece (accessed 13/3/2025).15 SESHASAYEE, Hari. "Redrawing India-Latin America Relations in the 21st Century," Observer Research Foundation, Issue Brief no. 634. April 2023. Available at: Redrawing India-Latin America Relations in the 21st Century https://www.orfonline.org/research/redrawing-india-latin-america-relations-in-the-21st-century (accessed 13/3/2025).16 SESHASAYEE, Hari. "The G20 turns New Delhi's eyes on Latin America", Observer Research Foundation. 10 December 2024. Available at: The G20 turns New Delhi's eyes on Latin America https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-g20-turns-new-delhi-s-eyes-on-latin-america (accessed 13/3/2025).17 BLASCO, Emili J. "Brasil: la persistente ambición de un país que se imagina a sí mismo como continente", Middle Powers: Transitando hacia un orden multipolar. IEEE Strategy Notebook, 225. June 2024. Available at: Ch. 5. Strategy Notebook 225.pdf (accessed 13/3/2025).18 SPRING, Jake. "Bolsonaro's anti-China rants have Beijing nervous about Brazil", Reuters. 26 October 2018. Available at: Bolsonaro's anti-China rants have Beijing nervous about Brazil | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/world/bolsonaros-anti-china-rants-have-beijing-nervous-about-brazil-idUSKCN1MZ0DR/ (accessed 13/3/2025).19 "Brazil and China agreed to trade in each other's currencies to bypass the dollar", Infobae. 30 March 2023. Available in: Brazil and China agreed to trade in their currencies to bypass the dollar - Infobae https://www.infobae.com/america/mundo/2023/03/29/brasil-y-china-acordaron-comerciar-en-sus-monedas-para-eludir-el-dolar/ (accessed 13/3/2025).20 RIVERA, Jhonnattan. "Brazil approves 5G spectrum auction rules, no ban on Huawei", Techbro. 1 March 2021. Available at: Brazil approves 5G spectrum auction rules, no ban on Huawei - TechBros https://somostechbros.com/2021/03/01/brasil-aprueba-reglas-de-subasta-del-espectro-5g-sin-prohibicion-a-huawei/ (accessed 13/3/2025).21 CARIELLO, Tulio. "50 years of Brazil-China relations: Solid foundations for a sustainable future", Red China & Latin America. 1 September 2024. Available at: 50 años de relaciones Brasil-China: Bases sólidas para un futuro sostenible / 50 anos de relações Brasil-China: Bases sólidas para um futuro sustentável - Red China y América Latina https://chinayamericalatina.com/50-anios-de-relaciones-brasil-china-bases-solidas-para-un-futuro-sostenible/ (accessed 13/3/2025).22 "China offers Brazil the Chengdu J-10 to fill fighter gap", Galaxia Militar. 9 January 2025. Available in: China offers Brazil Chengdu J-10 to fill fighter gap. - Galaxia Militar, https://galaxiamilitar.es/china-ofrece-a-brasil-el-chengdu-j-10-para-cubrir-la-brecha-de-aviones-de-combate/ (accessed 13/3/2025).23 "Prime Minister's Remarks at the G20 Session on "Social Inclusion and the Fight Against Hunger and Poverty", Prime Minister's Office. 18 November 2024. 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한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском Whether French or European, the strategy of nuclear deterrence is governed by one absolute rule: it is not an end in itself, but means to an end, so that we cannot put the atomic cart before the political horse. To avoid getting bogged down for the umpteenth time in futile discussions about a European nuclear deterrent, let's recall the fundamental principles of this strategy. Deterrence is a mode of operation with a negative goal as old as war itself. Aimed at preventing an adversary's offensive intentions, it has been used with varying degrees of success due to its random nature. It is based on the calculation of probabilities. Usually, if an aggressor takes the risk of transgressing deterrence based on conventional forces and its venture goes wrong, the aggressor has gambled and lost, suffering at worst the humiliation of defeat. With nuclear weapons, deterrence now takes on a whole new dimension, since the probability of nuclear retaliation entails the risk of an exorbitant loss, said to be unbearable, exceeding the value of what is at stake. The strategy of nuclear deterrence is not peace. It cannot prevent limited regional conflicts or suppress terrorist action. It can only be applied in the event of a massive attack of any kind against the vital interests of the country under attack. This “perimeter of vitality” does not have to be precisely defined, but is left to the discretion of the Head of State, so as to create uncertainty for the would-be aggressor. The strategy of nuclear deterrence is based on five identified principles, theorized in France by Generals Gallois [1] and Poirier. [2] Principle of credibility: nuclear deterrence requires the creation and demonstration of technical capabilities. This was the role of the tests suspended indefinitely in 1994 and prohibited by treaty (CTBT). Principle of permanence: the SDN is ensured by the Head of State, who is the sole decision-maker, with 24-hour access to electronic codes and means of transmission to strategic air forces on standby and submarines on patrol. Principle of uncertainty: “the deterrent effect results from the combination of certainty and uncertainty in the mental field of a would-be aggressor: certainty as to the existence of an unacceptable risk... uncertainty as to the exact conditions of application of the model in the event of the outbreak of hostilities.” Principle of sufficiency: for a medium-sized power like France, in terms of quantity and quality, neither too much nor too sophisticated. During the Cold War, this was known as “deterrence of the weak by the strong” (the strong being the Soviet Union, which French leaders wisely never named explicitly). To avoid embarking on a ruinous arms race, two conditions need to be met: A. An invulnerable nuclear force capable of retaliating in the event of aggression (nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines - SNLE - are permanently undetectable). It is essential to provide redundancy in the event of human or technical failure. B. Ability to penetrate enemy defenses. There is no such thing as 100% interception. The damage remains tolerable if the explosive charges are conventional, but if they are nuclear, the problem changes completely. An SSBN salvo sends 96 charges that can “vitrify” potentially as many targets. No defense system would be able to intercept them, no matter how much progress is made. All the more so as these warheads are surrounded by decoys, maneuverable (change of trajectory) and stealthy (low radar signature). This lasting superiority of aggression over protection means that the SDN is the only response. Principle of proportionality: the amount of “unbearable” destruction is related to the value of what is at stake. In this case, is the invasion and conquest of France worth the annihilation of one or more of the aggressor's vital centers?  So what should be the target? “Anticité” (men) or antiforces (weapons)? Progress in precision has made it possible to target smaller areas with greater precision. The official line is that France is no longer targeting cities, but rather the command centers of nuclear forces and political decision-making centers. However, such targets are rarely located in the heart of deserts, but have the bad taste of being buried deep in the middle of densely populated areas. The creation of a European strategic nuclear deterrent will therefore have to go along with all these principles. How and with what facilities? The stakes for the aggressor would change dimension. From the vital interests of France alone, we would move on to those of all the member states of the European Union, or at the very least, of those who would agree to join us. The calculation of proportionality would be affected, with ipso facto repercussions on the principle of sufficiency. Given its flexibility and visibility, should the air component be expanded? Should the number of nuclear weapons be increased? Should territorial positioning be extended, where and how far? Could France extend its nuclear deterrent to cover the interests of its European partners?  The nuclear “umbrella” declared by U.S. leaders since Kennedy's Defense Secretary McNamara has often been the subject of skepticism about its credibility, starting with General de Gaulle. Donald Trump openly exposes the eminently selfish nature of nuclear weapons. Who can still believe today that this President and his successors would sacrifice New York for Warsaw, Berlin or Paris? A fortiori, are the citizens of the countries of Europe prepared to make their existence dependent on the decision of the French President alone? Who could believe that he would sacrifice Paris for Tallinn? In truth, if the allies (European and Asian) thought they could rely on the commitment of the United States, it was because of the growing strength of American conventional forces capable of effectively opposing non-nuclear aggression. Any comparison with the USA is therefore absurd. Together, do the EU states have 11 aircraft carriers? 14 strategic nuclear submarines? Do their navies lock up world trade routes? Do they control Space? The little European frog won't reach the enormity of the American ox. But would this be necessary if their governments were to make an objective assessment of the real threat, free from ideological prejudices and corporatist interests? Let's move on to the crux of deterrence: the cost of “burden-sharing”, NATO's constant worry. Are states like Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland prepared to pay for the construction of a so-called European nuclear deterrent, without having access to the ultimate decision? Money is also time. A single multi-state nuclear strategy cannot be improvised overnight. Are we forgetting that some EU members do not perceive Russia as a threat; that others, like Austria, are leaders in favor of a ban on nuclear weapons? Last but not least, where would the post-Brexit United Kingdom fit into this scheme? Even if the will is strong and widely shared, the political, financial and technical development of a nuclear deterrent involving a number of European states will take time, on the order of several years. What will the Russian Federation look like, and how will US-China competition have evolved in five to ten years' time? Peacetime declarations (Franco-German, Franco-British) often express only grand illusions or pious hopes that cost nothing. The true ally is seen at the foot of the war, when egoistic realism reclaims its icy rights.  Yet for the past twenty years, in every crisis (financial, migratory, health - Covid- and military - Ukraine-), the EU has shown itself to be unprepared, slow to react and, above all, divided. The creation of a credible NED is therefore in flagrant contradiction with the very existence of the EU in its current form and operation. We need to return to the foundations of the Community project. Those countries of Europe which share a rigorously identical conception of their global situation, to the point of merging their vital interests, will have to agree on a lasting political framework defining common goals, in a sort of Charter; to equip themselves accordingly with a military alliance such as a European Defense Society for as long as deemed necessary; to guarantee themselves by a European Intelligence Community. Whether French or European, the strategy of nuclear deterrence is subject to one absolute rule: it is not an end in itself, but means to an end, so that we cannot put the atomic cart before the political horse. Copyrights for his picture : Copyright Mars 2025-Géré/Diploweb.com Marie-France Géré

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском I. Introduction  We are only two and a half months into the new Trump administration. However, President Donald Trump's long-threatened tariffs have plunged the country into a trade war abroad. On-again, off-again, new tariffs continue to escalate uncertainty around the world. Trump already launched a trade war during his first term in office, but he has more sweeping tariff plans right now. The second Trump administration has embarked on a new and more aggressive tariff policy, citing various economic and national security concerns. His administration has proposed, imposed, suspended, revoked, and then reimposed various new tariffs. It could be difficult for average citizens to keep up with all the proposals. As of March 19, 2025, there are ten proposed or active tariff initiatives. They range from broad-based tariffs that cover all goods from a certain country (China, Mexico, Canada) to tariffs that cover certain types of goods (aluminum & steel), promises of future tariffs (copper, lumber, automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical), and promised retaliatory tariffs (European wine and other alcoholic beverages). Moreover, although we have seen more tariff announcements in the first two months of the second Trump administration than in the entire first Trump administration, "fair and reciprocal" tariff rollout will overpower the tariffs imposed until today. The ten tariff initiatives that are proposed or in play are as follows in Table 1.   This paper aims to evaluate economic impacts of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. It first explains the effects of tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration and then forecasts the impacts of the second Trump administration's tariffs.  II. Literature on Tariff Effects A tariff is a type of tax that a government adds to imported goods. Companies importing goods pay the tariff to the government. If any part of a product arrives with a tariff, whether it is an imported avocado or a car built locally with imported steel, its cost is part of the price everyday consumers pay before sales tax.  Economists reject tariffs as an effective tool to improve the welfare of U.S. citizens or strengthen key industries. In a survey conducted during the first Trump administration, 93 % of economic experts did not agree that targeted tariffs on aluminium and steel would improve Americans' welfare. Recent research has strengthened economists' opposition to this policy instrument. Numerous studies demonstrate that American consumers entirely bear the burden of tariffs imposed during the first Trump administration, with disproportionately large impacts on lower-income U.S. households. A framework for analysing the impact of higher import tariffs on the economy is provided by Mundell and Fleming. Mundell (1961) claimed that the country that raised tariffs on imported products may benefit because more people choose domestically produced products over imported ones. Protection from foreign competition could also benefit domestic industries. Large countries can also benefit from improved terms of trade. However, increased tariffs on imported products are assumed to lead to an increase in the current account balance by increasing savings relative to investment. Higher savings dampen aggregate demand. The situation of households deteriorates because of rising consumer prices. Domestic industries are also negatively affected by lower household demand and the need to pay more for imported input products.  Over the years, Mundell and Fleming's model has been developed further by other scholars such as Eichengreen (1981), Krugman (1982), Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) and Eichengreen (2018). Overall, the theoretical literature demonstrates that higher import tariffs could affect the economy through various channels. The impacts of tariffs on the economy differ between a nation imposing the tariffs and nations exporting to the nation raising the tariffs. However, nations that are not subject to the increased import duties are also affected. Main effects of higher tariffs are as follows: Higher inflation: Higher import tariffs lead to higher prices for imported products. Depending on which tariffs are increased, this could lead to higher prices for both consumers and companies. Domestic firms may also raise their prices because of reduced competition from foreign companies (Cavallo et al. (2021)).  Higher consumer prices lead to a decline in real disposable household income, which hampers private consumption. Higher business costs have impacts on companies' profits, which in turn dampen employment and companies' willingness to invest. Companies are also more likely to pass on some of their higher costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. The rise in imported prices might be smaller in large countries, as they are more able to influence the world price of products. Increased consumption of other products: Higher imported prices can lead companies and consumers to increasingly buy cheaper domestic products. But it can also lead to increased imports of products from countries not subject to higher import tariffs.  Domestic industries are protected: Higher import tariffs improve the competitive position of domestic companies. These benefits can lead to increased investment, production, and employment in protected industries. However, the longer-term effect of protecting some domestic industries from foreign competition can be negative, as it might reduce incentives to improve production efficiency, thereby dampening productivity and GDP.  Decreased trade: Increased tariffs usually lead to reduced trade. This can lead to reduced knowledge transfer between nations in the form of less direct investment, reduced technology transfer, and reduced access to skilled labour. These factors in turn can lead to companies moving further away from the technological frontier, thereby hampering productivity (Dornbusch (1992) and Frankel and Romer (1999)).  Stronger exchange rate: When demand changes from foreign to domestic production, the exchange rate tends to rise to balance it out. One reason is that higher inflation often leads to higher interest rates relative to other nations. The nominal exchange rate might appreciate if imports decline significantly and demand for foreign currency drops. An appreciation of the exchange rate hampers exports but keeps imports cheaper.  Global value chains: Higher tariffs can lead to disruptions in global value chains by making imported inputs from abroad pricier. If firms are part of global value chains, higher costs for firms facing higher import costs may also lead to higher costs for domestic firms further down the production chain.  Uncertainty and confidence: Higher import tariffs may increase uncertainty about future trade policy and lead to increased pessimism among households and companies. Such uncertainty may hamper household consumption and business investment (Boer and Rieth (2024)).  III. Tariffs under the first Trump administration The first Trump administration's tariffs involved protectionist trade initiatives against other nations, notably China.  In January 2018, the Trump administration-imposed tariffs on solar panels and washing machines of 30–50%. In March 2018, the administration-imposed tariffs on aluminium (10%) and steel (25%), which are imported from most countries. In June 2018, the Administration expanded these tariffs to include the EU, Mexico, and Canada. The Trump administration separately set and escalated tariffs on products imported from China, leading to a trade war between the U.S. and China.  In their responses, U.S. trading partners imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. Canada imposed matching retaliatory tariffs on July 1, 2018. China implemented retaliatory tariffs equivalent to the $34 billion tariff imposed on it by the U.S. In June 2019, India imposed retaliatory tariffs on $240 million worth of U.S. products.  However, tariff negotiations in North America were under way and successful, with the U.S. lifting steel and aluminium tariffs on Mexico and Canada on May 20, 2019. Mexico and Canada joined Argentina and Australia, which were the only countries exempted from the tariffs. But on May 30, Trump announced on his own that he would put a 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico starting on June 10, 2019. The tariffs would go up to 10% on July 1, and then by another 5% every month for three months, until illegal immigrants stopped coming through Mexico and into the U.S. Then the tariffs were averted on June 7 after negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico. U.S. tariffs on Chinese products had been applied as follows: On March 22, 2018, Trump signed a memorandum under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to apply tariffs of $50 billion on Chinese products. In response, China announced plans to implement its tariffs on 128 U.S. products. 120 of those products, such as fruit and wine, will be taxed at a 15% duty, while the remaining eight products, including pork, will receive a 25% tariff. China implemented their tariffs on April 2, 2018.  On April 3, 2018, the U.S. Trade Representative's office (the USTR) published an initial list of 1,300+ Chinese products to impose levies upon products like flat-screen televisions, medical devices, aircraft parts and batteries. On April 4, 2018, China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to announce a plan to put 25% more tariffs on 106 U.S. goods, such as soybeans and cars.  In the response, On April 5, 2018, President Trump directed the USTR to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs. On May 9, 2018, China cancelled soybean orders exported from the United States to China. On June 15, 2018, President Trump released a list of Chinese products worth $34 billion that would face a 25% tariff, starting on July 6. Another list with $16 billion of Chinese products was released, with an implementation date of August 23.  On July 10, 2018, in reaction to China's retaliatory tariffs that took effect July 6, the USTR issued a proposed list of Chinese products amounting to an annual trade value of about $200 billion that would be subjected to an additional 10% in duties. During the G20 summit in Japan in June 2019, the U.S. and China agreed to resume stalled trade talks, with Trump announcing he would suspend an additional $300 billion in tariffs that had been under consideration. IV. Economic Effects of the Tariffs from the First Trump Administration Changes in tariffs affect economic activity directly by influencing the price of imported products and indirectly through changes in exchange rates and real incomes. The extent of the price change and its impact on trade flows, employment, and production in the United States and abroad depend on resource constraints and how various economic actors (producers of domestic substitutes, foreign producers of the goods subject to the tariffs, producers in downstream industries, and consumers) respond as the effects of the increased tariffs reverberate throughout the economy. According to the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS), the following six outcomes came out at the level of individual firms and consumers as well as at the level of the national economy. 1. Increased costs for U.S. consumers Higher tariff rates lead to price increases for consumers of products subject to the tariffs and for consumers of downstream products as input costs rise. Higher prices in turn lead to decreased consumption, depending on consumers' price sensitivity for a particular product. For example, consider the monthly price of U.S. laundry equipment, which includes washing machines subject to tariff increases as high as 50% since February 2018. The monthly price of this equipment increased by as much as 14% in 2018 compared to the average price level in 2017, before the tariffs took effect (see Figure 1).   Figure 1: U.S. laundry equipment prices According to Jin (2023), many companies passed the costs of the Trump tariffs on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Following impositions of the tariffs on Chinese products, the prices of U.S. intermediate goods rose by 10% to 30%, an amount equivalent to the size of the tariffs. An April 2019 working paper by Flaaen, Hortaçsu, and Tintel not found that the tariffs on washing machines caused the prices of washers to rise by approximately 12% in the United States. A Goldman Sachs analysis by Fitzgerald in May 2019 found that the consumer price index (CPI) for tariffed products had increased dramatically, compared to a declining CPI for all other core goods. According to the Guardian, the Budget Lab at Yale University found that American consumer prices could rise by 1.4% to 5.1% if Trump implemented his comprehensive tariff plan, which would amount to an additional $1,900 to $7,600 per household. 2. Decreased domestic demand for imported goods subject to the tariffs and less competition for U.S. producers of substitute goods: U.S. producers competing with the imported products subject to the tariffs (e.g., domestic aluminium and steel producers) may benefit to the degree they are able to charge higher prices for their domestic products and may expand production because of increased profitability. Since March 2018, U.S. imports of steel and aluminium have faced additional tariff charges of 25% and 10%, making foreign supplies of these products more expensive relative to domestic products. Because of these tariffs, U.S. imports of these goods went down in 2018 and 2019 compared to what they were usually like in 2017 before the tariffs, while U.S. production went up (see Figure 2 and Figure 3). By the first quarter of 2020, real U.S. imports of steel and aluminium (adjusted for price fluctuations) had decreased by more than 30% and 16%, respectively, from their average 2017 levels. The quarterly production of steel and aluminium in the U.S. during this period, however, increased by as much as 13.5% and 9.0%, respectively, above average 2017 levels.   Figure 2: Domestic production and imports: Steel  Figure 3: Domestic production and imports: Aluminium 3. Increased costs for U.S. producers in downstream industries, resulting in a decline in employment U.S. producers that use imported products subject to the additional tariffs as inputs ("downstream" industries, such as auto manufacturers in the case of the aluminium and steel tariffs) might be harmed as their costs of production increase. Higher input costs are more likely to lead to some combination of lower profits for producers, which in turn might dampen demand for these downstream products, leading to some contraction in these sectors.  A study (2019) by Federal Reserve Board economists Flaaen and Pierce, which examined effects on the manufacturing sector from all U.S. tariff actions in 2018, found that higher input costs from the tariffs were associated with higher prices, employment declines, and reductions in output for affected firms. Another study (2020) by Handley, Kamal, and Monarch found that the higher input costs associated with the tariffs might have led to a decrease in U.S. exports for firms reliant on imported intermediate inputs. Handley, Kamal, and Monarch suggested that export growth was approximately 2% lower for products made with products subject to higher U.S. tariffs, relative to unaffected products. Another study (2019) by Federal Reserve Board economists Flaaen and Pierce found that the steel tariffs led to 0.6% fewer jobs in the manufacturing sector than would have happened in the absence of the tariffs; this cut amounted to approximately 75,000 jobs. A study (2024) by Ma and David concluded that the United States lost 245,000 jobs because of the Trump tariffs.  4. Decreased demand for U.S. exports subject to retaliatory tariffs  Retaliatory tariffs place U.S. exporters at a price disadvantage in export markets relative to competitors from other countries, potentially decreasing demand for U.S. exports to those markets. Since Q3 2018, after Section 232 retaliatory tariffs took effect in China, the EU, Russia, and Türkiye, U.S. exports to these trading partners subject to the tariffs declined by as much as 44% below their 2017 average values (Figure 4). U.S. exports to China subject to retaliation during the same period declined even further from their 2017 levels, falling as much as 68% on a quarterly basis. By contrast, during this same period, overall U.S. exports were as much as 10% higher each quarter relative to 2017, suggesting the retaliatory tariffs played a role in the product-specific export declines.  Figure 4: Declines in U.S. exports subject to retaliation A study by Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy, and Khandelwal published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in October 2019 estimated that consumers and firms in the U.S. who buy imports lost $51 billion (0.27% of GDP) because of the 2018 tariffs. This study also found that retaliatory tariffs resulted in a 9.9% decline in U.S. exports. This study also found that workers in counties with a lot of Republicans were hurt the most by the trade war because agricultural products were hit the hardest by retaliatory tariffs.  5. U.S. National Economy In addition to industry- or consumer-level effects, tariffs also have the potential to affect the broader U.S. national economy. Quantitative estimates of the effects vary based on modelling assumptions and techniques, but most studies suggest a negative overall impact on U.S. GDP because of the tariffs.  The Congressional Budget Office (2020) estimated that the increased tariffs in effect as of December 2019 would reduce U.S. GDP by 0.5% in 2020, below a baseline without the tariffs, while raising consumer prices by 0.5%, thereby reducing average real household income by $1,277. From a global perspective, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the tariffs would reduce global GDP in 2020 by 0.8%. Dario Caldara et al. (2020) also found that in 2018, investment dropped by 1.5% because of the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy. Moreover, a study (2019) by Amiti, Redding, and David published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives found that by December 2018, Trump's tariffs resulted in a reduction in aggregate U.S. real income of $1.4 billion per month in deadweight losses and cost U.S. consumers an additional $3.2 billion per month in added tax. Furthermore, Russ (2019) found that tariffs, which Trump imposed through mid-2019, combined with the policy uncertainty they created, would reduce the 2020 real GDP growth rate by one percentage point.  6. Trade balance  The Trump administration repeatedly raised concerns over the size of the U.S. trade deficit, thereby making trade deficit reduction a stated objective in negotiations for new U.S. trade agreements. Broad-based tariff increases affecting a large share of imports may reduce imports initially, but they are unlikely to reduce the overall trade deficit over the longer period due to at least two indirect impacts that counteract the initial reduction in imports. One indirect effect is a potential change in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to foreign currencies. Another potential effect of U.S. import tariffs is retaliatory tariffs. Economists argue that while tariffs placed on imports from a limited number of trading partners may reduce the bilateral U.S. trade deficit with those specific nations, this is likely to be offset by an increase in the trade deficit or reduction in the trade surplus with other nations, leaving the total U.S. trade deficit largely unchanged.  Figure 5 shows the relative change in the U.S. goods trade deficit with the world as well as the bilateral U.S. deficits with three major partners, China, Mexico, and Vietnam, from 2017 to 2019. Since the U.S. tariffs took effect, the overall U.S. trade deficit has increased, rising 8% from 2017 to 2019. However, the U.S. trade deficit in goods with China declined by 8% from 2017 to 2019, while the U.S. trade deficit in goods with Vietnam and Mexico significantly increased by more than 40% during the same period.  Figure 5: Changes in the U.S. goods trade deficits with China, Mexico, and Vietnam According to Zarroli (2019), between the time Trump took office in 2017 and March 2019, the U.S. trade deficit increased by $119 billion, reaching $621 billion, the highest it had been since 2008. American Farm Bureau Federation data showed that agriculture exports from the U.S. to China decreased from $19.5 billion in 2017 to $9.1 billion in 2018, a 53% reduction.  V. What are the Potential Consequences of Trump's Tariff Plan? Last year, the Peterson Institute for International Economics examined the impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs based on his campaign promises, which would impose 10 % additional tariffs on US imports from all sources and 60 % additional tariffs on imports from China. The major outcomes were lower national income, lower employment, and higher inflation. McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland (2024) at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that both of Trump's tariff plans—imposing 10% additional tariffs on U.S. imports from all sources and 60% additional tariffs on imports from China—would reduce both U.S. real GDP and employment by 2028. But the former proposal damages the U.S. economy more than the latter. If other nations retaliate with higher tariffs on their imports from the U.S., the damage intensifies.  Assuming other governments respond in kind, Trump's 10 % increase results in U.S. real GDP that is 0.9 % lower than otherwise by 2026, and U.S. inflation rises 1.3 % above the baseline in 2025.  The 10 % added tariffs hurt the economies of Canada, Mexico, China, Germany, and Japan—all major US trading partners that see a lower GDP relative to their baselines through 2040. Mexico and Canada take much larger GDP hits than the U.S. The 60 % added tariffs on imports from China reduce its GDP relative to its baseline, much more than that of other U.S. trading partners. Mexico, however, sees a higher GDP than otherwise as some production shifts to Mexico from China. This paper focuses on Trump's universal 10 % tariffs rather than 60 % tariffs on imports from China because extreme 60 % tariffs on Chinese imports are not expected. McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland (2024) assume the 10 % tariff increase is implemented in 2025 and remains in place through the forecast period. They also consider a second scenario in which U.S. trading partners retaliate with equivalent tariff increases on products they import from the U.S.  Figures 6–11 show the results for the uniform additional 10 % increase in the tariff on imports of goods and services from all trading partners.   Figure 6: Projected change in real GDP of selected economies from an additional 10 % increase in US tariffs on imports of goods and services from all trading partners, 2025-40 (Source: McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland, 2024) When tariffs go up by 10%, the U.S. real GDP goes down by 0.36 % by 2026, and it goes down even more in Mexico and Canada by 2027 (see Figure 6). Chinese GDP drops by 0.25 % below the baseline in 2025. After the initial demand-induced slowdown, U.S. GDP recovers as production shifts from foreign suppliers to U.S. suppliers, leading to a slightly lower long-term GDP of 0.1 % below baseline by 2030 in the U.S.   Figure 7: Projected change in employment (hours worked) in selected economies from an additional 10 % increase in US tariffs on imports of goods and services from all trading partners, 2025-40 (Source: McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland, 2024) The results for aggregate employment are like the GDP outcomes (see figure 7). Employment drops in the United States by 0.6 % by 2026 but recovers due to a supply relocation towards U.S. suppliers. U.S. employment returns to baseline eventually because real wages decline permanently to bring employment back to baseline by assumption.  Figure 8: Projected change in inflation in selected economies from an additional 10% increase in US tariffs on imports of goods and services from all trading partners, 2025-40 (Source: McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland, 2024) The imposition of higher tariffs increases prices of both consumer and intermediate goods, contributing to a rise in inflation of 0.6 % above baseline in 2025 (see figure 8).  The higher tariff is inflationary everywhere except in China due to the tightening of Chinese monetary policy to resist change in the exchange rate relative to the U.S. dollar.   Figure 9: Projected change in the trade balance in selected economies from an additional 10 % increase in US tariffs on imports of goods and services from all trading partners, 2025-40 (Source: McKibbin, Hogan, and Noland (2024)) Figure 9 shows the change in the trade balance as a share of GDP. In theory, the trade balance can worsen or improve due to changes in exports and imports. From 2025 to 2028, the U.S. trade deficit narrows slightly but then widens as capital flows into the U.S. economy, appreciating the U.S. real effective exchange rate. By 2030, the U.S. trade deficit will worsen by 0.1 % of GDP due to capital moving from Mexico and Canada into the U.S. Government savings rise due to additional tariff revenues.  VI. Conclusion  This paper showed that tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration had negative impacts on the U.S. economy, particularly inflation, incomes, and employment. It also demonstrated that tariffs which will be imposed by the second Trump administration are expected to have negative effects on the U.S. economy. Then a question arises: "Why does Trump attempt to impose tariffs on products from abroad?" Today, more people mention tariffs as tools to protect U.S. companies and farmers. They are discussed as a tool for bringing back manufacturing businesses into the U.S. as well as a bargaining tactic in negotiations over the flow of fentanyl and immigration. Trump has used and promised to increase tariffs for three purposes: to raise revenue, to bring trade into balance, and to bring rival countries to heel. It is unclear whether Trump will achieve his goals. However, President Donald Trump believes that tariffs are a panacea. Trump believes that his tariffs would bring hundreds of billions—trillions— into the US Treasury. Moreover, Trump is confident that he can force countries to give up something he believes is in America's best interest. For example, his tariffs on Canada and Mexico have led Mexico and Canada to agree to expand their border patrols. Reference  Amiti Mary, Redding Stephen, David E, “The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare,” Journal of Economic Perspectives. 33 (Fall 2019): 187–210. Boer, L. and M. 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한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском First months of the 2025 year were uneasy for Canada, it started with waves of changes. The era of Justin Trudeau, who was the leader of the country for 10 years from 2015 to 2025, and the beginning of the new presidential term of Donald Trump made things different for Canada and added uncertainty. On the ninth of march the new leader of the Liberal Party has been chosen, Mark Carney became the new prime minister of Canada. It remains unclear how long he will stay in his position, because Canada is standing on the threshold of federal elections. The end of era Like any leader, Justin Trudeau had certain achievements but also enough failures that affected the decline in his popularity among the population, lack of trust from fellow party members and opposition parties, which in the best years were even ready to collaborate with him together. In 2022 the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Liberal Party make an agreement to build trust and solidify a position on significant socio-economic issues. However, by the end of autumn 2024 the leader of the New democratic party Jagmeet Singh said that Justin Trudeau was not coping with the tasks facing the country and announced the NDP withdrawal from the agreement. This statement had a negative impact on the rating of the Liberal Party while they were passing decisions through Parliament. In the end of December Jagmeet Singh asked Justin Trudeau to resign and state that he is ready to support a vote of no confidence in the government, which the Conservative Party has been systematically calling for by that time. In the end of December of 2024 suddenly minister of finance and deputy prime minister of Canada Chrystia Freeland unexpectedly announced her resignation. This action raised a wave of negative sentiments around Justin Trudeau. The greatest criticism of the Prime Minister was caused by the failed migration policy, shortage of housing stock coupled with the sharp increase in housing prices, high inflation, and unemployment and the introduction of unpopular carbon tax. As a result of severe pressure of fellow party members and leaders of opposition parties Justin Trudeau was forced to announce the resignation on 6th of January, from the moment when a successor will be found within the liberal party. At the same time, he noted that if he must wage and internal party struggle, he does not consider himself as a suitable candidate for the role of a leader for the party during the next elections.  Beginning of New Uncertainty The era of political uncertainty in Canada worsened when Donald Trump repeatedly “attacked” the country’s sovereignty by verbally proposing Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. He also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian products, although he canceled this decision several times. On December 1st, Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on products coming from Canada and a 10% tariff on energy from Canada. The U.S. stated that this was a measure to combat emerging threats due to high levels of migration and fentanyl trafficking across the U.S.-Canada border. In response, Canada threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs on critically important minerals and fossil, electricity supplies, energy resources, and other products. Justin Trudeau, who was in the final days of his term, achieved some success during negotiations on February 3rd between Canadian and American leaders. As a result, Donald Trump agreed to postpone the imposition of tariffs on Canadian products for 30 days. This decision followed Canada’s promise to strengthen border security measures and invest an additional $1 million into those efforts. The tariffs were imposed on March 4th, and Justin Trudeau responded with retaliatory measures targeting U.S. products. However, on March 5th, Donald Trump canceled the tariffs on the automobile industry, and on March 6th, after a phone call with the leaders of Mexico and Canada, he signed an executive order temporarily suspending tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products that comply with the terms of the USMCA (United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement). If the tariffs were imposed in full, they would have had a negative impact on the Canadian economy. Supply chain channels would suffer, leading to an increase in the prices of various goods traded between Canada and the U.S. Additionally, the tariffs would reduce the competitiveness of Canadian products in the U.S. market. The most harmful consequences would be felt by sectors and products highly dependent on the American market. Trust credit The topics related to tariffs and bilateral agreements with the USA during the last two months became the main subject of discussion in Canada and in the main election campaign for the leader of the Liberal Party. On the 9th of March, the successor of Justin Trudeau was selected. It was Mark Carney, who received 85.9% of the votes. During the final stage, there were four candidates for the position of leader of the Liberal Party. The second after Mark was the Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister of Canada, Chrystia Freeland. She did not get many votes, receiving only 8% of the votes from the electorate. The other two candidates — Karina Gould, the leader of the Government in the House of Commons, and Frank Baylis, who was a member of Parliament, received 3.2% and 3%, respectively. The main topics of Mark Carney’s internal party campaign were the economic development of Canada, climate change, and a green incentive program. He proposed a carbon tax from consumers to large companies, removing trade barriers between Canadian provinces and territories, increasing the pace of housing construction and investments in this sphere while cutting the government budget. The success of Mark Carney can be attributed to a few reasons. He is the only candidate who did not hold any official position in Justin Trudeau’s Cabinet and did not have a position in Parliament. So, he represents some distance from the course of the prime minister, which Canadians did not like during the post-pandemic times. Canadians associate Mark Carney with new opportunities and changes for Canada. He is not a person from politics; he is related to the economy and business sector. Among his numerous roles, he was the Governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 crisis, when Canada avoided the worst impacts due to good financial and banking policies. In 2013, he was appointed as Governor of the Bank of England. He handled the economic processes during Brexit and the following economic and political crises. This experience casts Mark Carney in a positive light for voters and provides him with trust during tough times in the country, marked by unfriendly statements and actions from the closest partner — the US. Carney himself highlights his success in crisis management and believes that he would be able to negotiate with Trump, even though he agrees that the 25% tariff and policy that Trump has stated are a serious challenge in modern Canadian history. In his victory speech after being elected as the leader of the Liberal Party, he highlighted that: "The United States of America are not Canada. Canada will never become a part of the US in any form, in any way." All other political elites are in solidarity with him. Carney states that Canada must fight Trump’s tariffs using retaliatory measures in the form of "dollar for dollar." The main goal is the diversification of trade agreements in the medium term. Both goals are important. For now, Canadian analysts are concerned that Trump’s tariffs in the short term may cause a recession in the Canadian economy. It is important to remember that Donald Trump is a businessman, and in political discussions, he has often said that he is ready for deals. Maybe Carney, with his experience in the economy and finance, will find a way to make such a deal — if he has time. What is next? For how long Mark Carney will stay in the prime minister position is hard to predict now. According to the schedule, another federal election in Canada should take place no later than October 2025, however, the Canada Elections Act provides the opportunity for long-term elections. There is a high probability that Mark Carney will use his popularity and announce voting in the next few weeks. According to the law, the pre-election period must last from 37 to 51 days. The main opposition for Carney will be the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre. For the last 1.5 years, the rating of the Conservative Party has been significantly higher than the rating of the Liberal Party. According to the data, the popularity rate of the Conservative Party on January 6th was equal to 44.2%, and the Liberal Party had 20.1%. However, the rating of the Liberals started to grow after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation. According to the data on March 5th, the rating of the Conservative Party was equal to 40.3%, and the Liberal Party had 30.8%. Pierre Poilievre, with his views, is close to the ideas of right-wing populism. He is a supporter of the Freedom Convoy — the protest movement that spread across Canada in early 2022. People often say that his positions and approaches are similar to those of Donald Trump. Even though the pre-election campaign has not officially started yet, Pierre Poilievre unofficially began his campaign in January.  After Justin Trudeau announced his impending resignation, Pierre Poilievre changed his political slogan “Axe the Tax” (which referred to the unpopular carbon tax) to “Canada First,” which is similar to Trump’s slogan “America First.” Poilievre promises that he will remove trade barriers for provinces, tighten punishments for fentanyl dealers, strengthen border security, construct a base in the Arctic, the construction of which will be financed by cutting foreign aid. Border security, fentanyl contraband, and low defense costs in Canada are the main complaints of Donald Trump. Mark Carney, talking about his opponent Pierre Poilievre, said: “Donald Trump is trying to weaken our economy, but there is also another person who is doing the same. And this person is Pierre Poilievre. Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready for conquest because he is a person who worships Trump, and he will stay on his knees in front of Trump, not oppose him.” The election on March 9th for the leader of the Liberal Party is not the final stage of the political situation in Canada. It remains to be seen who will become the new prime minister for the next four years.

한국어로 읽기 Leer en español In Deutsch lesen Gap اقرأ بالعربية Lire en français Читать на русском With Donald Trump seemingly determined to push the US economy on a path towards autarky, our major trading partners will need to make alternative arrangements. This is especially the case with Canada, since its economy is so closely tied to the US economy. At this point, Mark Carney, the country’s new Prime Minister, knows there is little possibility of dealing with Trump rationally. Trump has bizarre and totally imagined grievances against Canada. His main complaint seems to be that the United States runs a $200 billion trade deficit with Canada, which Trump describes as Canada ripping off the United States. It’s hard to believe that anyone would say that selling stuff to a willing and well-informed customer is ripping them off. Presumably we buy stuff from Canada because it’s cheaper than the stuff we either produce ourselves or could buy from other countries. Also, the deficit is entirely due to purchases of oil from Canada, something Trump sought to promote in his first term. We have mostly balanced trade if we exclude oil. In fact, the claims of unfairness are based on a treaty that Trump himself negotiated in his first term. Trump can’t even get his numbers straight. Rather than being $200 billion, our trade deficit is less than one-third this size, at just over $60 billion. Trump’s erratic craziness makes the prospect of a real and lasting deal very dim. Carney has to look to secure stronger trade deals with more stable partners. Europe and Latin America are clearly part of the that story, but China needs to be too, as the world’s largest economy. There are opportunities for major gains from trade with China, especially in the auto sector, which had been thoroughly intertwined with the United States and Mexico. Carney has to work from the assumption that these links could be severed for the indefinite future. Here China’s enormous progress in developing electric vehicles offers a great opportunity to Canada. China now sells high quality, low-cost EVs. It has also developed battery technology to the point where a battery can be fully charged in six minutes, not much different than the time it takes to fill a tank of gas. Canada can in principle negotiate trade deals with China where it partially opens its market to its EVs, in exchange for a commitment to technology transfer. The plan would be that in a few years Canadian manufacturers would adopt the latest Chinese technology and supply much of the market themselves. Since Canada has more union-friendly labor law than the United States, they can structure their deal so that the factory jobs would be largely good-paying union jobs. This would be good for the environment, good for Canadian workers and consumers, and good for Canada’s economy, since it means car buyers will have considerably more money to spend on other items or to save. It would also set up a great contrast with the United States, where Trump is determined to try to lock the country into building and buying cars that rely on old-fashioned internal combustion (IC) engines. While Canadians are buying high-quality EVs, people in the United States will be buying IC cars for two or even three times the price. Furthermore, while we are paying $40 to $60 to fill our tanks every couple of weeks, Canadians will be able to power their vehicles for ten or fifteen dollars a charge. The move to EVs will also mean that Trump will have imposed a permanent cost on the US car industry, even if he eventually learns a little economics and discovers his tariffs were not a good idea. If Canada develops a vibrant EV industry, it will not be going back to the integrated production structure with the United States that it had with IC vehicle producers before the trade war. Trump is not going to be able to get Canadians to buy more expensive IC vehicles. The only way for the United States auto industry to go forward, if we move back towards more normal trade with Canada, will be for it to double-down on developing EVs itself. There obviously will be many other problems that Canada will have to deal with as it attempts to cope with unwinding decades of economic integrations with the United States, but working with China on adopting EV technology should be a no-brainer. In this area, Trump may have done Canada a big favor.